A capture-recapture model to estimate the effects of extra-legal disparities on crime funnel selectivity and punishment avoidance

Selectivity takes place at all stages of the judicial process, leading to a population that become less representative of the total offender population throughout the crime funnel. We know that not all crimes represent the same risk of being caught and punished and that some individual’s characteristics also influence this risk. The aim of this study is to observe if extra-legal factors, such as gender, race, but also criminal career characteristics, such as specialization and mobility, have an impact on the probability of arrest, conviction and incarceration and to observe how the age-crime curve might be influenced by this differential risk. Our results indicate that male and black offenders are more likely to be punished. The more mobile and specialized offenders are the less likely to be arrested, convicted and incarcerated.

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