Home Grown or Imported? Initial Conditions, External Anchors and the Determinants of Institutional Reform in the Transition Economies

In this article we examine the determinants of institutional change using a panel dataset comprising 25 transition economies. A defining characteristic of our approach is that we treat institutional change as a multidimensional unobserved variable, accounting for the fact that each of our indicators represents a noisy signal. Our results suggest that institutional change is significantly path dependent. However, policy can to some extent break this dependence through economic and political liberalisation at the start of the transition and with the help of an external anchor such as EU accession.

[1]  M. Friedman,et al.  Theory of the Consumption Function , 1957 .

[2]  K. Lahiri Inflationary Expectations: Their Formation and Interest Rate Effects , 1976 .

[3]  R D Bock,et al.  High-dimensional multivariate probit analysis. , 1996, Biometrics.

[4]  G. Cornia,et al.  Informal Institutions, Social Capital, and Economic Transition: Reflections on a Neglected Dimension , 2001 .

[5]  A. Zellner Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Independent Variables , 1970 .

[6]  The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation , 2000 .

[7]  R. Avery Modeling monetary policy as an unobserved variable , 1979 .

[8]  Nancy Argüelles,et al.  Author ' s , 2008 .

[9]  Amelia C. Regan,et al.  Trucking Industry Adoption of Information Technology: A Structural Multivariate Probit Model , 2002 .

[10]  A. Boomsma,et al.  The robustness of LISREL modeling revisted. , 2001 .

[11]  James A. Robinson,et al.  The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation , 2000 .

[12]  J. Hellman Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions , 1998, World Politics.

[13]  Edward L. Glaeser,et al.  The Injustice of Inequality , 2002 .

[14]  R. Engle,et al.  Alternative Algorithms for the Estimation of Dynamic Factor , 1983 .

[15]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Latent variable models in econometrics , 1984 .

[16]  N. Campos,et al.  Context is Everything: Measuring Institutional Change in Transition Economies , 1999 .

[17]  Nicholas Stern,et al.  Transition report 1999 - ten years of transition , 1999 .

[18]  Karl G. Jöreskog,et al.  Lisrel 8: User's Reference Guide , 1997 .

[19]  Howard Coonley,et al.  Making democracy work , 1941, Electrical Engineering.

[20]  Peter B. Wylie,et al.  Effects of Coarse Grouping and Skewed Marginal Distributions on the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient , 1976 .

[21]  Stephen F. Knack,et al.  INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: CROSS‐COUNTRY TESTS USING ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES , 1995 .

[22]  Cevdet A. Denizer,et al.  Circumstance and choice: the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies , 1999 .

[23]  Aart Kraay,et al.  Aggregating Governance Indicators , 1999 .

[24]  D. North,et al.  Institutional Change and American Economic Growth. , 1972 .

[25]  R. Paredes,et al.  Empirical Studies in Institutional Change: Public institutions and private transactions: a comparative analysis of the legal and regulatory environment for business transactions in Brazil and Chile , 1996 .

[26]  Charles E. Brown Multivariate Probit Analysis , 1998 .

[27]  J. Sachs,et al.  The Gains from Privatization in Transition Economies: Is “Change of Ownership” Enough? , 2001, IMF Staff Papers.

[28]  P. Bentler,et al.  Evaluating model fit. , 1995 .

[29]  J. Platteau Behind the market stage where real societies exist ‐ part I: The role of public and private order institutions , 1994 .

[30]  Oleh Havrylyshyn,et al.  Institutions Matter in Transition, But So Do Policies , 2000, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[31]  Thomas F. Golob,et al.  Trucking Industry Adoption of Information Technology: A Structural Multivariate Discrete Choice Model , 2002 .

[32]  J. M. Brabant Without a Map – Political Tactics and Economic Reform in Russia , 2000 .

[33]  James A. Ohlson Risk, Return, Security-Valuation and the Stochastic Behavior of Accounting Numbers , 1979, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[34]  A. Goldberger,et al.  Estimation of a Model with Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes of a Single Latent Variable , 1975 .

[35]  R. Cudeck,et al.  Structural equation models: Present and Future. A Festschrift in honor of Karl Jöreskog. , 2001 .

[36]  M. Olson Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development. , 1993 .

[37]  J. Stiglitz Whither Reform? Ten Years of the Transition , 1999 .

[38]  D. Ziebart The Effects of Annual Accounting Data on Stock Returns and Trading Activity: A Causal Model Study , 1987 .

[39]  A. Spanos LIQUIDITY AS A LATENT VARIABLE – AN APPLICATION OF THE MIMIC MODEL , 2009 .

[40]  A. Shleifer,et al.  Government in transition , 1997 .

[41]  F. Drasgow,et al.  The polyserial correlation coefficient , 1982 .

[42]  D. R. Johnson,et al.  Ordinal measures in multiple indicator models: A simulation study of categorization error. , 1983 .

[43]  Adam Fforde,et al.  From plan to market , 1996 .

[44]  N. Stern The transition in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union: some strategic lessons from the experience of 25 countries over six years , 1997 .

[45]  T. Wansbeek Measurement error and latent variables in econometrics , 2000 .

[46]  M. C. Hill,et al.  Evaluating Model Fit , 2005 .

[47]  Bengt Muthén,et al.  A Structural Probit Model with Latent Variables , 1979 .

[48]  J. Ashford,et al.  Multi-variate probit analysis. , 1970, Biometrics.

[49]  M. Cook,et al.  Growth and Structural Change , 1995 .

[50]  A. Goldberger,et al.  MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF REGRESSIONS CONTAINING UNOBSERVABLE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES* , 1972 .

[51]  M. Raiser,et al.  Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms and Growth in the First Decade of Transition , 2001 .

[52]  David A. Lipton,et al.  Privitization in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland , 1990 .