Optimal distribution of the influenza vaccine

Influenza is a serious public health concern and vaccination is the first line of defense. In a pandemic, individuals are prioritized based on their risk profiles and transmission rates to ensure effective use of the available vaccine. We use an agent-based stochastic simulation model, and optimize the age-specific vaccine distribution strategy. We use black-box optimization techniques to minimize the overall cost of the outbreak. Our numerical experiments show that the best policy returned by our approach outperforms alternative policies recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

[1]  N. Ferguson,et al.  Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies. , 2008, American journal of epidemiology.

[2]  Keiji Fukuda,et al.  Prevention and control of influenza. Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). , 2002, MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports.

[3]  C. Bridges,et al.  The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: measuring disease burden and costs. , 2007, Vaccine.

[4]  Mark A. Miller,et al.  Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control , 2007, Epidemiology and Infection.

[5]  松本 慶蔵,et al.  季節性インフルエンザ(Seasonal Influenza)の総括 , 2009 .

[6]  C. Bridges,et al.  Seasonal influenza vaccines. , 2009, Current topics in microbiology and immunology.

[7]  Claudio J. Struchiner,et al.  Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies , 2009 .

[8]  Malbea A Lapete,et al.  Prevention and Control of Influenza Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices ( ACIP ) , 2004 .

[9]  Dennis L. Chao,et al.  FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model , 2010, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[10]  I. Longini,et al.  An optimization model for influenza A epidemics , 1978 .

[11]  Benjamin Schwartz,et al.  Prioritization of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine: Rationale and Strategy for Decision Making , 2009, Current topics in microbiology and immunology.

[12]  Sigrún Andradóttir,et al.  Simulation of influenza propagation: Model development, parameter estimation, and mitigation strategies , 2014 .

[13]  D. Cummings,et al.  Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic , 2006, Nature.

[14]  D. Cummings,et al.  Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia , 2005, Nature.

[15]  Stefano Merler,et al.  Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic , 2009, BMC infectious diseases.

[16]  Charles Audet,et al.  Mesh Adaptive Direct Search Algorithms for Constrained Optimization , 2006, SIAM J. Optim..

[17]  D. Fisman,et al.  Optimal Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Allocation Strategies for the Canadian Population , 2010, PloS one.

[18]  J. Taubenberger,et al.  1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics , 2006, Emerging infectious diseases.

[19]  Jacco Wallinga,et al.  Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing. , 2008, Vaccine.

[20]  M. Halloran,et al.  Strategies for Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza Vaccination of Schoolchildren in the United States , 2009, American journal of epidemiology.

[21]  Gerardo Chowell,et al.  Australia: Transmission and Prospects for Control , 2007 .

[22]  Gerardo Chowell,et al.  Adaptive Vaccination Strategies to Mitigate Pandemic Influenza: Mexico as a Case Study , 2009, PloS one.

[23]  P. Kaye Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control , 1993 .

[24]  M. Halloran,et al.  Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms. , 2005, Journal of theoretical biology.

[25]  C. Macken,et al.  Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[26]  J. Medlock,et al.  Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution , 2009, Science.

[27]  I. Longini,et al.  The critical vaccination fraction for heterogeneous epidemic models. , 2003, Mathematical biosciences.

[28]  En Español,et al.  Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation , 2011 .