A semi-continuous model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses in enclosed spaces via multiple pathways to assess risk of infection and mitigation strategies

The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedy and disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be to manage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific community as to which transmission pathways are most significant and how settings and behaviour affect risk of infection, which all have implications for which mitigation strategies are most effective. This study presents a general model to estimate the rate of viral transfer between individuals, objects, and the air. The risk of infection to individuals in a setting is then computed considering the behaviour and interactions of individuals between themselves and the environment in the setting, survival times of the virus on different surface types and in the air, and mitigating interventions

[1]  D. Lai,et al.  Mathematical Modeling of Business Reopening When Facing SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Protection, Cost, and Risk , 2020, Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics.

[2]  Yuan Wang,et al.  Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 , 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  Rachael M. Jones.  Relative contributions of transmission routes for COVID-19 among healthcare personnel providing patient care , 2020, Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene.

[4]  Karunia Putra Wijaya,et al.  A COVID-19 epidemic model integrating direct and fomite transmission as well as household structure , 2020, medRxiv.

[5]  D. Hui,et al.  Probable transmission routes of the influenza virus in a nosocomial outbreak , 2018, Epidemiology and Infection.

[6]  Yuguo Li,et al.  Transmission of Influenza A in a Student Office Based on Realistic Person-to-Person Contact and Surface Touch Behaviour , 2018, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[7]  Pinar Göker,et al.  Determination of hand and palm surface areas as a percentage of body surface area in Turkish young adults , 2017 .

[8]  H. Ullum,et al.  Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers , 2020, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[9]  J. Sahmel,et al.  Estimation of hand-to-mouth transfer efficiency of lead. , 2015, The Annals of occupational hygiene.

[10]  Raymond Tellier,et al.  Aerosol transmission of influenza A virus: a review of new studies , 2009, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[11]  Dylan H. Morris,et al.  Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 , 2020, The New England journal of medicine.

[12]  L. Morawska,et al.  Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Earlier Stages Exhaled Millions of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Per Hour , 2020, Clinical Infectious Diseases.

[13]  C. Gerba,et al.  Modeling of Human Viruses on Hands and Risk of Infection in an Office Workplace Using Micro-Activity Data , 2015, Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene.

[14]  H. Tani,et al.  Transmissibility of COVID-19 depends on the viral load around onset in adult and symptomatic patients , 2020, PloS one.

[15]  J. Kurelek,et al.  Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation , 2021, Physics of fluids.

[16]  Cliff Grover.  Efficacy of face masks depends on spatial relation between host and recipient and who is being protected , 2020, BMJ.

[17]  H F Edelhauser,et al.  Comparison of conjunctival and corneal surface areas in rabbit and human. , 1988, Current eye research.

[18]  L. Morawska,et al.  Transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 by inhalation of respiratory aerosol in the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreading event , 2020, medRxiv.

[19]  M. Weterings,et al.  Bacterial Transfer To Fingertips During Sequential Surface Contacts With And Without Gloves. , 2020, Indoor air.

[20]  P. Linden,et al.  Airborne infection R-numbers for regularly attended spaces: COVID-19 a case-study , 2020, 2009.02999.

[21]  Benjamin J. Cowling,et al.  Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks , 2020, Nature Medicine.

[22]  Marisa C. Eisenberg,et al.  Fomite-mediated transmission as a sufficient pathway: a comparative analysis across three viral pathogens , 2018, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[23]  Lucie Abeler-Dörner,et al.  Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing , 2020, Science.

[24]  R. Beumer,et al.  Residual Viral and Bacterial Contamination of Surfaces after Cleaning and Disinfection , 2012, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[25]  Yuguo Li,et al.  Evidence for probable aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a poorly ventilated restaurant , 2020, medRxiv.

[26]  J. Tang,et al.  Airborne or Fomite Transmission for Norovirus? A Case Study Revisited , 2017, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[27]  Shelly L. Miller,et al.  How can airborne transmission of COVID-19 indoors be minimised? , 2020, Environment International.

[28]  J. Tang,et al.  Human behavior during close contact in a graduate student office. , 2019, Indoor air.

[29]  Jijun Zhao,et al.  Model Analysis of Fomite Mediated Influenza Transmission , 2012, PloS one.

[30]  Yuguo Li,et al.  Surface touch and its network growth in a graduate student office , 2018, Indoor air.

[31]  Chao-Hsin Lin,et al.  Evaluating the Commercial Airliner Cabin Environment with Different Air Distribution Systems. , 2019, Indoor air.

[32]  Yuguo Li,et al.  Infection Spread and High-Resolution Detection of Close Contact Behaviors , 2020, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[33]  J. Wang,et al.  Deducing the Dose-response Relation for Coronaviruses from COVID-19, SARS and MERS Meta-analysis Results , 2020, medRxiv.

[34]  T. Wong,et al.  Role of fomites in SARS transmission during the largest hospital outbreak in Hong Kong , 2017, PloS one.

[35]  J. Tang,et al.  Close contact behaviour in indoor environment and transmission of respiratory infection. , 2020, Indoor air.

[36]  W. Arnold,et al.  The oral mucosal surface and blood vessels , 2013, Head & Face Medicine.

[37]  Sharon L. Norris,et al.  Routes of transmission of influenza A H1N1, SARS CoV, and norovirus in air cabin: Comparative analyses , 2018, Indoor air.

[38]  Pengbo Liu,et al.  Effectiveness of Liquid Soap and Hand Sanitizer against Norwalk Virus on Contaminated Hands , 2009, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[39]  Philippe H. Trinh,et al.  The ventilation of buildings and other mitigating measures for COVID-19: a focus on wintertime , 2021, Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

[40]  Joseph G. Allen,et al.  Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission , 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[41]  Kerrie Mengersen,et al.  Size distribution and sites of origin of droplets expelled from the human respiratory tract during expiratory activities , 2009 .

[42]  T. M. Pham,et al.  The potential impact of intensified community hand hygiene interventions on respiratory tract infections: a modelling study , 2020, Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

[43]  Lidia Morawska,et al.  It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 , 2020, Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

[44]  J. Leon,et al.  Risk of fomite-mediated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in child daycares, schools, and offices: a modeling study , 2020, medRxiv.

[45]  S. Gizurarson.  Send Orders of Reprints at Reprints@benthamscience.org Anatomical and Histological Factors Affecting Intranasal Drug and Vaccine Delivery , 2022 .