A bounded set theoretical approach to reliability modelling and calculations for composite generation-transmission systems including systems with unconventional energy sources

Abstract A bounded set theoretic approach to the evaluation of the frequency and duration with which a composite generation-transmission system encounters a state of failure is given The use of sets of system states in considering transition between system states has a remarkable effect on the computation required for solution and produces a mathematically and computationally tractable method. The method is essentially based on the concept of a cumulative frequency and duration approach. Effects of unconventional energy sources and the dispersed character of the stochastic system load are included in the modelling. Exact and approximate methods for computing bounds for the chosen reliability indices are also given