Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles

With a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. By modelling the demand for LDVs, the use of fuels, and the types of vehicles introduced we can analyse the potential impacts on the whole economy. We find that with large increases in the use of vehicles in many regions around the globe, the electrification of LDVs is important in achieving cost effective climate targets and minimising the impact of transportation on other sectors of the economy.

[1]  Sha Fu,et al.  Long-Term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models , 2013 .

[2]  Malte Schwoon,et al.  Learning by doing, learning spillovers and the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles , 2008, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[3]  David Popp,et al.  Induced Innovation and Energy Prices , 2001 .

[4]  S. K. Ribeiro.  Transport and its infrastructure , 2007 .

[5]  Paul R. Wyrwoll,et al.  World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD) , 2012 .

[6]  Alban Kitous,et al.  Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System -Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model , 2010 .

[7]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  The WITCH Model: Structure, Baseline, Solutions , 2007 .

[8]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  The 2008 Witch Model: New Model Features and Baseline , 2009 .

[9]  P. Romer.  Endogenous Technological Change , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[10]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization , 2007 .

[11]  M. Paul,et al.  ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL CHANGE , 1990 .

[12]  Marco A. Janssen,et al.  Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical Documentation , 2002 .

[13]  J. Dargay,et al.  Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide, 1960-2015 , 1999 .

[14]  Ina Meyer,et al.  International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050 , 2007 .

[15]  A. Schäfer,et al.  The future mobility of the world population , 2000 .

[16]  International Technology Transfer to Local Suppliers by Volvo Trucks in India , 2004 .

[17]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Disaggregating Household Transport in the MIT-EPPA Model , 2004 .

[18]  Charles I. Jones,et al.  R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[19]  K. Arrow.  The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing , 1962 .

[20]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Climate impact of transportation A model comparison , 2013, Climatic Change.

[21]  Nadia Ameli,et al.  Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles , 2012 .

[22]  M. Tavoni,et al.  A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model , 2006 .

[23]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  MERGE. A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies , 1995 .

[24]  Son H. Kim,et al.  Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands , 2011 .

[25]  Lee Chapman,et al.  Transport and climate change: a review , 2007 .

[26]  D. Metz.  The Myth of Travel Time Saving , 2008 .

[27]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  Advanced Biofuels: Future Perspectives from an Expert Elicitation Survey , 2013 .

[28]  T J Wallington,et al.  Fuel and vehicle technology choices for passenger vehicles in achieving stringent CO2 targets: connections between transportation and other energy sectors. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[29]  Sebastiaan Deetman,et al.  Global travel within the 2°C climate target , 2012 .

[30]  S. Kahouli-Brahmi.  Technological learning in energy–environment–economy modelling: A survey , 2008 .

[31]  Thomas Longden,et al.  Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate Policy , 2012 .

[32]  E. Schmid,et al.  Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets , 2011 .

[33]  Vincent Gitz,et al.  IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways , 2010 .

[34]  Pooya Soltantabar.  Annual Energy Outlook , 2015 .

[35]  Lew Fulton,et al.  IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008 , 2009 .

[36]  Lewis Fulton,et al.  Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Transportation: Trends, Driving Factors, and Forces for Changea , 2003 .

[37]  H. Turton.  Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis , 2006 .

[38]  R. Richels,et al.  The Value of Technological Advance in Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy , 2007 .