A probabilistic physics-of-failure reliability assessment approach for integrated LED lamps

This work studies the effect of randomness of LED's lumen depreciation on reliability of the entire LED lamp. An integrated LED light bulb is selected as carrier of the proposed method. A PoF based lumen depreciation model and electronic-thermal simulations are introduced for reliability prediction. The normal distribution is used to describe the statistical distribution of LEDs. The probabilities of the driver's catastrophic failures and lumen can then be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations by considering the increase of lamp's temperature. The effect of the lumen depreciation to the entire lamp is studied with two scenarios: constant light mode and constant current mode.

[1]  Xinbo Ruan,et al.  A Review of LED Drivers and Related Technologies , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[2]  P. L Hall,et al.  Probabilistic physics-of-failure models for component reliabilities using Monte Carlo simulation and Weibull analysis: a parametric study , 2003, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[3]  Bo Sun,et al.  A novel lifetime prediction for integrated LED lamps by electronic-thermal simulation , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[4]  Cadmus A. Yuan,et al.  An accelerated test method of luminous flux depreciation for LED luminaires and lamps , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[5]  C. Gardiner.  Handbook of Stochastic Methods , 1983 .

[6]  Jeffrey W. Harms,et al.  Revision of MIL-HDBK-217, Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment , 2010, 2010 Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS).

[7]  Huai Wang,et al.  A Lifetime Prediction Method for LEDs Considering Real Mission Profiles , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Power Electronics.

[8]  Weiwen Peng,et al.  Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[9]  Huibing Hao,et al.  LED Lighting System Reliability Modeling and Inference via Random Effects Gamma Process and Copula Function , 2015 .

[10]  Michael Pecht,et al.  Optimal Design of Life Testing for High-Brightness White LEDs Using the Six Sigma DMAIC Approach , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Device and Materials Reliability.

[11]  Xuejun Fan,et al.  Solid State Lighting Reliability , 2013 .

[12]  W. V. van Driel,et al.  A Reliability Prediction for Integrated LED Lamp With Electrolytic Capacitor-Free Driver , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology.

[13]  Xiupeng Li,et al.  Degradation modeling of mid-power white-light LEDs by using Wiener process. , 2015, Optics express.