Modeling correlated human dynamics with temporal preference

Abstract We empirically study the activity pattern of individual blog-posting and observe the interevent time distributions decay as power-laws at both individual and population level. As different from previous studies, we find significant short-term memory in it. Moreover, the memory coefficient first decays in a power law and then turns to an exponential form. Our findings produce evidence for the strong short-term memory in human dynamics and challenge previous models. Accordingly, we propose a simple model based on temporal preference, which can well reproduce both the heavy-tailed nature and the strong memory effects. This work helps in understanding the temporal regularities of online human behaviors.

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