Deterministic Modeling Of Infectious Diseases: Theory And Methods

This study aims at providing an understanding of deterministic modeling as applied to the population dynamics of infectious diseases. Deterministic modeling is based on the nonlinear dynamics of infection spread in a population. The SEIR deterministic model can provide useful insights into the mechanic of many common childhood diseases such as measles. Simple deterministic models can help us identify the factors controlling the persistence and stability of transmitted viral and bacterial infections within large human communities. Deterministic models exhibit damped oscillations, show random variations (in chaotic regime), and predict the spread of infectious diseases. This paper provides an introduction to the theory and methods of deterministic modeling and will be followed by two other articles that will show how sensitivity analysis can be helpful for the forecast and control of common infectious diseases at the population scale.