Comparing Extreme Wave Estimates From Hourly And Annual Data

This paper estimates 100-year wave height levels from (1) a model fit to all wave heights observed over 18 years in a Northern North Sea location; and (2) an extreme event model that considers only the 18 annual maxima. The result of method (1) is generally found to exceed that from method (2). We seek here to reconcile this difference, considering the effects of clustering, statistical and model uncertainty. The general conclusion is to favor approaches that directly model the large wave height events of interest; e.g., annual maxima or storms. Beyond its relevant to extreme waves, this study aims to show useful results to quantify statistical uncertainty and clustering effects in estimating extremes.