Chapter 11 - Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability

This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, "near-term" change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed.

[1]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Tracking uncertainties in the causal chain from human activities to climate , 2009 .

[2]  K. Bryan,et al.  A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability , 1997 .

[3]  D. Rowell Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[4]  Hristo Chervenkov,et al.  Effects of climate change on ozone and ­particulate matter over Central and Eastern Europe , 2011 .

[5]  M. Allen,et al.  Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle , 2002, Nature.

[6]  N. Gillett,et al.  Human influence on extratropical Southern Hemisphere summer precipitation , 2012 .

[7]  Michael J. Prather,et al.  Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions , 2012 .

[8]  S. Gualdi,et al.  Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[9]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[10]  M. Petters,et al.  A review of the anthropogenic influence on biogenic secondary organic aerosol , 2011 .

[11]  J. Logan,et al.  Effect of rising Asian emissions on surface ozone in the United States , 1999 .

[12]  D. Wuebbles,et al.  Impacts of long‐range transport of global pollutants and precursor gases on U.S. air quality under future climatic conditions , 2008 .

[13]  P. Bergamaschi,et al.  European Geosciences Union Atmospheric Chemistry , 2004 .

[14]  Masayoshi Ishii,et al.  Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses , 2006 .

[15]  Yongxiang Hu,et al.  Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable? , 2010 .

[16]  Yoichi Ishikawa,et al.  Potential for decadal predictability in the North Pacific region , 2009 .

[17]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts , 2012 .

[18]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[19]  R. Weiss,et al.  Atmospheric histories and global emissions of the anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons HFC‐365mfc, HFC‐245fa, HFC‐227ea, and HFC‐236fa , 2011 .

[20]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Identifying the causes of the poor decadal climate prediction skill over the North Pacific , 2012 .

[21]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models* , 2013 .

[22]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves , 2010 .

[23]  Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming , 2013 .

[24]  J. Murphy,et al.  A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[25]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Southern Hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases , 2004 .

[26]  B. DeAngelo,et al.  Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment , 2013 .

[27]  A. P. Williams,et al.  A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa , 2011 .

[28]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[29]  Michael A. Palecki,et al.  Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[30]  Nadine Unger,et al.  Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors , 2009 .

[31]  W. Briggs Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[32]  Andrew T. Wittenberg,et al.  El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand? , 2010 .

[33]  Wilco Hazeleger,et al.  Western Europe is warming much faster than expected , 2008, 0806.0715.

[34]  I. Jolliffe Uncertainty and Inference for Verification Measures , 2007 .

[35]  A. Timmermann,et al.  The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño , 2010 .

[36]  B. Armstrong,et al.  Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health , 2009, Environmental health : a global access science source.

[37]  Jianqi Sun,et al.  Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies , 2007 .

[38]  Katja Lohmann,et al.  A possible mechanism for the strong weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the mid‐1990s , 2009 .

[39]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation , 2006 .

[40]  Jung-Hun Woo,et al.  Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States , 2007 .

[41]  C. Timmreck Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions , 2012 .

[42]  M. Webb,et al.  Dependency of global mean precipitation on surface temperature , 2008 .

[43]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  A Model Investigation of Aerosol-Induced Changes in Tropical Circulation , 2011 .

[44]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions , 2005 .

[45]  David Stephenson,et al.  Climate change. A changing climate for prediction. , 2007, Science.

[46]  A. Troccoli,et al.  Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[47]  Michael H. Depledge,et al.  Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications , 2008 .

[48]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  New Directions: Climate change and air pollution abatement: A bumpy road , 2009 .

[49]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions , 2009 .

[50]  Hermann Held,et al.  Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[51]  J. Buring,et al.  Observational Evidence , 1993, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[52]  D. Stone,et al.  Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming , 2007 .

[53]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[54]  Xu Yue,et al.  Simulation of dust aerosol radiative feedback using the GMOD: 2. Dust-climate interactions , 2010 .

[55]  M. Heal,et al.  Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat-wave in the UK , 2008 .

[56]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Effects of business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality , 2012 .

[57]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle , 2010 .

[58]  허창회 극 진동(Arctic Oscillation) , 2002 .

[59]  R. Monson,et al.  Isoprene emission from terrestrial ecosystems in response to global change: minding the gap between models and observations , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[60]  T. Stockdale Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Forecasts in the Presence of Climate Drift , 1997 .

[61]  M. Merrifield A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s , 2011 .

[62]  D. McNeall,et al.  Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth's radiation balance , 2011 .

[63]  Johanna Baehr,et al.  Forecast skill of multi‐year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology , 2012 .

[64]  D. Barker,et al.  Change in ozone air pollution over Chicago associated with global climate change , 2008 .

[65]  P. Bhave,et al.  To what extent can biogenic SOA be controlled? , 2008, Environmental science & technology.

[66]  M. Holland,et al.  Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations , 2012 .

[67]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply , 2010, Nature.

[68]  J. Norris,et al.  How do aerosol histories affect solar “dimming” and “brightening” over Europe?: IPCC‐AR4 models versus observations , 2009 .

[69]  S. Sherwood,et al.  The impact of natural versus anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model , 2011 .

[70]  Helge Drange,et al.  External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability , 2010 .

[71]  C. Appenzeller,et al.  Snow-albedo feedback and Swiss spring temperature trends , 2012, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[72]  Jason Lowe,et al.  Click Here for Full Article , 1989 .

[73]  Ann M. Fridlind,et al.  Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies , 2007 .

[74]  J. Haigh,et al.  The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate , 1996, Science.

[75]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends , 2007, Nature.

[76]  Sarah M. Kang,et al.  Expansion of the Hadley Cell under Global Warming: Winter versus Summer , 2012 .

[77]  Simon J. Mason,et al.  On Using ``Climatology'' as a Reference Strategy in the Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores , 2004 .

[78]  Pierre Rampal,et al.  IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline , 2011 .

[79]  J. Hansen,et al.  Perception of climate change , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[80]  A. Miller,et al.  Predicting Western North Pacific Ocean Climate , 2001 .

[81]  Jeff Knight,et al.  A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate , 2005 .

[82]  J. Chiang,et al.  Supplementary information for "Control of land-ocean temperature contrast by ocean heat uptake" , 2007 .

[83]  R. Lu,et al.  Intensification of East Asian Summer Rainfall Interannual Variability in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by 12 CMIP3 Coupled Models , 2010 .

[84]  G. Meehl,et al.  Relating the strength of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) , 2012 .

[85]  G. Vecchi,et al.  North Atlantic tropical storm frequency response to anthropogenic forcing: Projections and sources of uncertainty , 2011 .

[86]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade , 2013 .

[87]  E S E U S K I R C H E N,et al.  Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length , productivity , and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems , 2006 .

[88]  T. Schneider,et al.  Extent of Hadley circulations in dry atmospheres , 2008 .

[89]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[90]  Armistead G Russell,et al.  Sensitivities of ozone and fine particulate matter formation to emissions under the impact of potential future climate change. , 2007, Environmental science & technology.

[91]  Grant Branstator,et al.  Two Limits of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability in a CGCM , 2010 .

[92]  W. G. Strand,et al.  Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4 , 2013 .

[93]  M. Kleeman A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in California to global change , 2008 .

[94]  H. Künsch,et al.  Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability , 2009 .

[95]  Peter J. Adams,et al.  Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change , 2006 .

[96]  M. Chin,et al.  Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations , 2013 .

[97]  C. Müller,et al.  Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study , 2009 .

[98]  R. Stolarski,et al.  A model study of the impact of source gas changes on the stratosphere for 1850–2100 , 2011 .

[99]  G. Branstator,et al.  Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change , 2004 .

[100]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[101]  Andrew J. Pitman,et al.  Attributing the impacts of land-cover changes in temperate regions on surface temperature and heat fluxes to specific causes: Results from the first LUCID set of simulations , 2012 .

[102]  D. Wuebbles,et al.  Domestic versus international contributions on 2050 ozone air quality: How much is convertible by regional control? , 2013 .

[103]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing , 2008 .

[104]  M. Holland,et al.  Comment on “On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models” by I. Eisenman, N. Untersteiner, and J. S. Wettlaufer , 2008 .

[105]  Yizhou Yin,et al.  Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979–2010 and associated variability , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[106]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models , 2010 .

[107]  I. Simmonds,et al.  The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification , 2010, Nature.

[108]  N. Mahowald,et al.  Global Iron Connections Between Desert Dust, Ocean Biogeochemistry, and Climate , 2005, Science.

[109]  M. Holland,et al.  Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss , 2011 .

[110]  S. Wijffels,et al.  Fifty-Year Trends in Global Ocean Salinities and Their Relationship to Broad-Scale Warming , 2010 .

[111]  John T. Fasullo,et al.  Robust Land–Ocean Contrasts in Energy and Water Cycle Feedbacks* , 2010 .

[112]  Bin Wang,et al.  Ocean Forcing to Changes in Global Monsoon Precipitation over the Recent Half-Century , 2008 .

[113]  R. Betts,et al.  Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence , 2011 .

[114]  J. Lowe,et al.  Comparing the impacts of mitigation versus non-intervention scenarios on future temperature and precipitation extremes in the HadGEM2 climate model , 2012 .

[115]  D. Jaffe,et al.  Ozone production from wildfires: A critical review , 2012 .

[116]  P. Samson,et al.  Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments , 1995 .

[117]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[118]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations , 2012 .

[119]  H. V. D. Dool,et al.  Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction , 2006 .

[120]  M. Latif,et al.  Is the observed NAO variability during the instrumental record unusual? , 2008 .

[121]  T. Delworth,et al.  Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas‐induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation? , 2006 .

[122]  Noel Keenlyside,et al.  Prospects for decadal climate prediction , 2010 .

[123]  Cynthia A. Randles,et al.  Direct and semi-direct impacts of absorbing biomass burning aerosol on the climate of southern Africa: a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM sensitivity study , 2010 .

[124]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction , 2013, Nature Communications.

[125]  Richard G. Derwent,et al.  Fresh air in the 21st century? , 2003 .

[126]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Global air quality and climate. , 2012, Chemical Society reviews.

[127]  Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,et al.  Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends , 2011 .

[128]  N. Mahowald,et al.  Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates , 2006 .

[129]  Liguang Wu,et al.  Typhoon Track Changes Associated with Global Warming , 2011 .

[130]  D. Wuebbles,et al.  Effects of intercontinental transport on surface ozone over the United States: Present and future assessment with a global model , 2008 .

[131]  G. Lenderink,et al.  Intense coastal rainfall in the Netherlands in response to high sea surface temperatures: analysis of the event of August 2006 from the perspective of a changing climate , 2009 .

[132]  M Gordon,et al.  Air-Pollution Control. , 1965, Science.

[133]  H. Smit,et al.  Air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave as seen by MOZAIC airliners. , 2008 .

[134]  Jean-Francois Lamarque,et al.  Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change , 2008 .

[135]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the eastern US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models , 2011 .

[136]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Intensification of hot extremes in the United States , 2010 .

[137]  A. Singleton,et al.  Super‐Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line , 2013 .

[138]  M. Hoerling,et al.  On North American Decadal Climate for 2011–20 , 2011 .

[139]  R. Sutton,et al.  Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability , 2010 .

[140]  Martin Wild,et al.  The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle , 2010 .

[141]  U. Ulbrich,et al.  Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations , 2008 .

[142]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific , 1994 .

[143]  Ichiro Fukumori,et al.  DISTINGUISHING THE ROLES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENICALLY FORCED DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY Implications for Prediction , 2011 .

[144]  Byung-Ju Sohn,et al.  Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport , 2010 .

[145]  M. Kanamitsu,et al.  Planetary Scale Land-Ocean Contrast of Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Forced by Pres , 2009 .

[146]  Takashi T. Sakamoto,et al.  Impact of the Assimilation of Sea Ice Concentration Data on an Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Simulation of the Arctic Ocean Climate , 2011 .

[147]  Gautam Bisht,et al.  Impact of deforestation in the Amazon basin on cloud climatology , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[148]  C. Deser,et al.  Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900 , 2004 .

[149]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 , 1997 .

[150]  Christine Wiedinmyer,et al.  A review of Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) formation from isoprene , 2009 .

[151]  M. Holland,et al.  Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast , 2007 .

[152]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  The impact of transpacific transport of mineral dust in the United States , 2007 .

[153]  H. Paeth,et al.  Enhanced evidence in climate models for changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation , 2010 .

[154]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill , 2009 .

[155]  Doug M. Smith,et al.  Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s , 2012 .

[156]  T. Zhou,et al.  Prediction of decadal variability of sea surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP , 2012 .

[157]  Thomas Reichler,et al.  On the Effective Number of Climate Models , 2011 .

[158]  Mian Chin,et al.  Intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols : implications for regional air quality , 2007 .

[159]  P. Stott,et al.  Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes , 2008 .

[160]  B. Kirtman,et al.  Decadal North Pacific Bred Vectors in a Coupled GCM , 2007 .

[161]  A. Rosati,et al.  System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies , 2007 .

[162]  S. Xie,et al.  Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: A surface evaporation perspective , 2008 .

[163]  N. Unger Global Climate Forcing by Criteria Air Pollutants , 2012 .

[164]  M. Blackburn,et al.  The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns , 2012 .

[165]  Simon C. Scherrer,et al.  Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959–2008 , 2012 .

[166]  P. Hess,et al.  Modelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach , 2011 .

[167]  C. Bitz Some Aspects of Uncertainty in Predicting Sea Ice Thinning , 2013 .

[168]  Christoph Schär,et al.  Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes , 2009 .

[169]  Mian Chin,et al.  Influence of the 2006 Indonesian biomass burning aerosols on tropical dynamics studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM , 2010 .

[170]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption , 1992 .

[171]  G. Meehl,et al.  Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends , 2006 .

[172]  K. Haines Ocean Data Assimilation , 2010 .

[173]  A. Robock,et al.  Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models , 2006 .

[174]  Christine Wiedinmyer,et al.  A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations , 2009 .

[175]  A. Fedorov,et al.  Model Bias Reduction and the Limits of Oceanic Decadal Predictability: Importance of the Deep Ocean , 2013 .

[176]  Alicia R. Karspeck,et al.  A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content , 2012 .

[177]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment , 2013 .

[178]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices , 2013 .

[179]  D. Cayan,et al.  Statistical downscaling of climate change impacts on ozone concentrations in California , 2008 .

[180]  M. Kleeman,et al.  Evaluating the first‐order effect of intraannual temperature variability on urban air pollution , 2003 .

[181]  J. Haigh,et al.  Influences of ozone depletion, the solar cycle and the QBO on the Southern Annular Mode , 2007 .

[182]  T. Delworth,et al.  Simulated impact of altered Southern Hemisphere winds on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation , 2008 .

[183]  J. Räisänen,et al.  Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique , 2006 .

[184]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation , 2007 .

[185]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Wind Effects on Past and Future Regional Sea Level Trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific* , 2010 .

[186]  Philip W. Mote,et al.  The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate , 2008 .

[187]  R. Kleeman,et al.  Calculation of climatically relevant singular vectors , 2003 .

[188]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models , 2006 .

[189]  T. DelSole,et al.  The “Shukla–Gutzler” Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability , 2013 .

[190]  R. Vautarda,et al.  Simulation of ozone during the August 2003 heat wave and emission control scenarios , 2005 .

[191]  A. Ganguly,et al.  Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios , 2011 .

[192]  William J. Collins,et al.  Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution , 2008 .

[193]  B. Ahrens,et al.  Regional Climate Projections , 2015 .

[194]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble , 2012 .

[195]  G. Hegerl,et al.  The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures , 2013 .

[196]  J. Neelin,et al.  Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming , 2009 .

[197]  M. Collins,et al.  Predictability of decadal variations in the thermohaline circulation and climate , 2003 .

[198]  E. Hawkins,et al.  A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions , 2011 .

[199]  G. Lenderink,et al.  Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes , 2008 .

[200]  Doug M. Smith,et al.  An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model , 2007 .

[201]  Allison L. Steiner,et al.  Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California , 2006 .

[202]  E. Hunter,et al.  Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket , 2007 .

[203]  P. Rasch,et al.  Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols , 2012 .

[204]  E. Roeckner,et al.  Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change , 2006 .

[205]  John E. Walsh,et al.  Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system , 2006 .

[206]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering , 2007 .

[207]  T. Reichler,et al.  Breaking down the tropospheric circulation response by forcing , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[208]  G. Meehl,et al.  EARLY ONLINE RELEASE , 2011 .

[209]  Yan Feng,et al.  Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives , 2009 .

[210]  G. Stephens,et al.  Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments , 2008 .

[211]  W. Collins,et al.  Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols on the Indian Monsoon , 2008 .

[212]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Is the climate warming or cooling? , 2009 .

[213]  M. Jacobson Effects of wind‐powered hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on stratospheric ozone and global climate , 2008 .

[214]  N. Mahowald,et al.  A less dusty future? , 2003 .

[215]  Mike Lockwood,et al.  Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? , 2010 .

[216]  A. H. E. Nadi The Significance of Leaf Area in Evapotranspiration , 1974 .

[217]  Klaus Butterbach-Bahl,et al.  Future scenarios of N2O and NO emissions from European forest soils , 2006 .

[218]  E. Tziperman,et al.  Nonnormal Thermohaline Circulation Dynamics in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM , 2008 .

[219]  Michael J. Prather,et al.  Coupling of Nitrous Oxide and Methane by Global Atmospheric Chemistry , 2010, Science.

[220]  P. Adams,et al.  The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States , 2007 .

[221]  J. Galloway,et al.  Transformation of the Nitrogen Cycle: Recent Trends, Questions, and Potential Solutions , 2008, Science.

[222]  James D. Annan,et al.  Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles , 2010, Climate Dynamics.

[223]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols , 2006 .

[224]  G. Boer,et al.  A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long time scales , 2000 .

[225]  D. Lüthi,et al.  European summer climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble , 2007 .

[226]  R. Vautard,et al.  Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3 , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[227]  Relationship between Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal timescale , 2006 .

[228]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale , 1995 .

[229]  J Berner,et al.  Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[230]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle , 2007 .

[231]  Katie Coughlin,et al.  Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi‐model ensemble mean , 2008 .

[232]  L. Back,et al.  Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud resolving model , 2011 .

[233]  Hans von Storch,et al.  Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections , 2008 .

[234]  V. Ramanathan,et al.  Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon , 2008 .

[235]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Consistent changes in twenty‐first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations for Korea using two convection parameterizations , 2008 .

[236]  Richard P. Allan,et al.  Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation , 2007 .

[237]  Xiangdong Zhang Sensitivity of arctic summer sea ice coverage to global warming forcing: towards reducing uncertainty in arctic climate change projections , 2010 .

[238]  C. Chou,et al.  Asymmetry of tropical precipitation change under global warming , 2007 .

[239]  L. Ruby Leung,et al.  Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality , 2008 .

[240]  C. Skjøth,et al.  The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe , 2012 .

[241]  D. Shindell Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model , 2007 .

[242]  L. Polvani,et al.  Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change , 2009 .

[243]  T. Huntington Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis , 2006 .

[244]  S. Power,et al.  The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index , 2011 .

[245]  P. Stott,et al.  What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near‐surface temperature changes? , 2012 .

[246]  E. Hawkins,et al.  The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change , 2011 .

[247]  M. Previdi Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation , 2010 .

[248]  W. G. Strand,et al.  Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4 , 2012 .

[249]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860-2100 , 2012 .

[250]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches , 2014 .

[251]  C. Deser,et al.  Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[252]  Stefan Rahmstorf,et al.  On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth , 2010 .

[253]  The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM , 2012 .

[254]  P. Stott,et al.  Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise , 2002, Nature.

[255]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections , 2013 .

[256]  Jana Sillmann,et al.  Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking , 2011 .

[257]  R. Allan,et al.  Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change , 2012, Surveys in Geophysics.

[258]  Thomas E. Fricker,et al.  A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[259]  M. Blackburn,et al.  The Response of Tropospheric Circulation to Perturbations in Lower-Stratospheric Temperature , 2005 .

[260]  D. Schimel,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases , 1999 .

[261]  Nathan P. Gillett,et al.  Detection of external influence on sea level pressure with a multi‐model ensemble , 2005 .

[262]  Louisa Emmons,et al.  Ozone pollution from future ship traffic in the Arctic northern passages , 2006 .

[263]  Xin‐Zhong Liang,et al.  Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes , 2007 .

[264]  John A. Pyle,et al.  Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets , 2007 .

[265]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review , 2010 .

[266]  E. Stehfest,et al.  Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands , 2011 .

[267]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The large‐scale energy budget of the Arctic , 2007 .

[268]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases , 2005, Nature.

[269]  D. Plummer,et al.  Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions , 2012 .

[270]  Martin Scherer,et al.  Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries , 2011, Climatic change.

[271]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Mapping model agreement on future climate projections , 2011 .

[272]  Jennifer A. Logan,et al.  Ozone in rural areas of the United States , 1989 .

[273]  Jianqi Sun,et al.  Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change , 2010 .

[274]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Transport of Asian ozone pollution into surface air over the western United States in spring , 2012 .

[275]  I. Held,et al.  Phase speed spectra and the recent poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies , 2007 .

[276]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[277]  D. Shindell,et al.  Spatially refined aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiencies. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[278]  R. Weiss,et al.  Atmospheric histories and global emissions of the anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons HFC‐365mfc, HFC‐245fa, HFC‐227ea, and HFC‐236fa , 2011 .

[279]  J. Marengo,et al.  Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system , 2009 .

[280]  E. Berbery,et al.  Land Cover Change Effects on the Climate of the La Plata Basin , 2012 .

[281]  Jed O. Kaplan,et al.  Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century , 2011 .

[282]  M. Haylock,et al.  The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections , 2006 .

[283]  William J. Collins,et al.  Possible role of wetlands, permafrost, and methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change: A review , 2010 .

[284]  J. Shukla,et al.  Ocean Data Assimilation, Initialization, and Predictions of ENSO with a Coupled GCM , 1999 .

[285]  F. Vukovich Regional-scale boundary layer ozone variations in the eastern United States and their association with meteorological variations , 1995 .

[286]  Michael J. Prather,et al.  Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry , 2012 .

[287]  Martyn P. Chipperfield,et al.  Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models , 2010 .

[288]  E. van Meijgaard,et al.  Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes , 2010 .

[289]  S. Dhomse,et al.  Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations , 2011 .

[290]  Christopher A. T. Ferro,et al.  A bias‐corrected decomposition of the Brier score , 2012 .

[291]  T. Delworth,et al.  Assessing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and associated fingerprints , 2010 .

[292]  G. Reverdin,et al.  Near-Surface Salinity as Nature’s Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle , 2012 .

[293]  A. Voulgarakis,et al.  Pre-industrial to end 21st century ozone projections from ACCMIP , 2012 .

[294]  John R. Stedman,et al.  The predicted number of air pollution related deaths in the UK during the August 2003 heatwave , 2004 .

[295]  M. Ringer,et al.  Precipitation changes within dynamical regimes in a perturbed climate , 2010 .

[296]  N. Mahowald Anthropocene changes in desert area: Sensitivity to climate model predictions , 2007 .

[297]  Menas Kafatos,et al.  Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling , 2009 .

[298]  Terry C. K. Lee,et al.  Evidence of Decadal Climate Prediction Skill Resulting from Changes in Anthropogenic Forcing , 2006 .

[299]  S. J. Lambert,et al.  Multi‐model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature , 2008 .

[300]  H. Rodhe,et al.  Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models , 2010 .

[301]  Myles R. Allen,et al.  Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations , 2013 .

[302]  P. Webster,et al.  Causes of Observed Changes in Extreme Projections of Future Changes , 2008 .

[303]  J. Storch,et al.  A Simple Empirical Model for Decadal Climate Prediction , 2011 .

[304]  M. Jacobson,et al.  Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality , 2009 .

[305]  Doug M. Smith,et al.  Impact of atmosphere and sub‐surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction , 2010 .

[306]  Kaarle Kupiainen,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone , 2011 .

[307]  Zong-Liang Yang,et al.  Predicted impacts of climate and land use change on surface ozone in the Houston, Texas, area , 2008 .

[308]  Oliver Wild,et al.  Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the variability in current models , 2007 .

[309]  Benjamin I. Cook,et al.  Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[310]  Andreas P. Weigel,et al.  A Generic Forecast Verification Framework for Administrative Purposes , 2009 .

[311]  Klaus Butterbach-Bahl,et al.  A European-wide inventory of soil NO emissions using the biogeochemical models DNDC/Forest-DNDC , 2009 .

[312]  Wen Zhou,et al.  Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation , 2011 .

[313]  Mike Lockwood,et al.  SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE , 2009 .

[314]  D. Rind The Consequences of Not Knowing Low- and High-Latitude Climate Sensitivity , 2008 .

[315]  E. Hawkins,et al.  The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions , 2009 .

[316]  D. Jacob,et al.  Intercontinental influence of NOx and CO emissions on particulate matter air quality , 2011 .

[317]  H. Fowler,et al.  Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multimodel ensemble , 2007 .

[318]  R. Langenfelds,et al.  The global SF6 source inferred from long-term high precision atmospheric measurements and its comparison with emission inventories , 2010 .

[319]  W. Hazeleger,et al.  Predicting multi-year North Atlantic ocean variability , 2013 .

[320]  T. Delworth,et al.  Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes , 2006 .

[321]  Julienne C. Stroeve,et al.  The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models , 2010 .

[322]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models , 2013 .

[323]  Nicholas Z. Muller,et al.  Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls , 2012, Environmental health perspectives.

[324]  Xiaosong Yang,et al.  A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL's fully-coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system , 2012 .

[325]  J. Gregory,et al.  Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations , 2007 .

[326]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2 , 1991 .

[327]  P. Whetton,et al.  Consistency of simulated and observed regional changes in temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation , 2013, Climatic Change.

[328]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections , 2010 .

[329]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region , 2010 .

[330]  Change of mean midlatitude westerlies in 21st century climate simulations , 2009 .

[331]  Wen Zhou,et al.  Influences of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year , 2008 .

[332]  P. O’Gorman Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change , 2012 .

[333]  Uang,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis , 2010 .

[334]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Time of emergence of climate signals , 2012 .

[335]  B. Santer,et al.  Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models , 2006 .

[336]  C. Schär,et al.  Land‐atmosphere coupling associated with snow cover , 2011 .

[337]  H. Treut,et al.  The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations , 2009 .

[338]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models – why is it so hard? , 2011 .

[339]  Jianlin Hu,et al.  Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods , 2010 .

[340]  Richard G. Derwent,et al.  Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere , 2003 .

[341]  Jiping Liu,et al.  Poleward expansion of the hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations , 2012, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[342]  J. Christensen,et al.  Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies , 2012 .

[343]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model , 1999 .

[344]  G. Roelofs Aerosol lifetime and climate change , 2012 .

[345]  D. Rind,et al.  Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States , 2004 .

[346]  R. Sutton,et al.  Atlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate , 2005, Science.

[347]  S. Sillman,et al.  Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[348]  K. Keay,et al.  Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979–2008 , 2009 .

[349]  Lifeng Luo,et al.  Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi‐model experiment , 2010 .

[350]  Takashi T. Sakamoto,et al.  Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[351]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles , 2011 .

[352]  Ying Xu,et al.  Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century , 2009 .

[353]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century , 2010 .

[354]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Decadal and Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Prediction Skill , 1995 .

[355]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Uncertainties in climate stabilization , 2009 .

[356]  Takashi T. Sakamoto,et al.  Decadal Prediction Using a Recent Series of MIROC Global Climate Models , 2012 .

[357]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension , 2012, Climatic Change.

[358]  Josefino C. Comiso,et al.  Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover , 2008 .

[359]  J. Annan,et al.  Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble , 2010 .

[360]  R. Haarsma,et al.  Anthropogenic changes in the Walker circulation and their impact on the extra-tropical planetary wave structure in the Northern Hemisphere , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[361]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams , 2007 .

[362]  A. Thomson,et al.  The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .

[363]  C. Andersson,et al.  European summer surface ozone 1990–2100 , 2012 .

[364]  Dirk Notz,et al.  The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[365]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States , 2009 .

[366]  Simona Masina,et al.  Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study , 2006 .

[367]  David B. Lobell,et al.  Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation , 2008, Environmental Research Letters.

[368]  Donglin Guo,et al.  A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century , 2012 .

[369]  E. Forootan,et al.  Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010 , 2014 .

[370]  David Rind,et al.  How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades? , 2009 .

[371]  D. Easterling,et al.  Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment , 2012 .

[372]  J. Gregory,et al.  Simulation of daily variability of surface temperature and precipitation over europe in the current and 2 × Co2 climates using the UKMO climate model , 1995 .

[373]  W. Müller,et al.  Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction , 2010, Climate Dynamics.

[374]  Arun Kumar,et al.  A Statistical Forecast Model for Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity Based on the NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast , 2009 .

[375]  P. Hess,et al.  How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States , 2006 .

[376]  Jerald W. Harder,et al.  An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate , 2010, Nature.

[377]  S. Xie,et al.  Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection , 2010 .

[378]  A. Voulgarakis,et al.  Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing , 2012 .

[379]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[380]  Olivier Boucher,et al.  Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide , 2007, Nature.

[381]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  The formation, properties and impact of secondary organic aerosol: current and emerging issues , 2009 .

[382]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone , 2006 .

[383]  S. Brown,et al.  Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought , 2008 .

[384]  C. Deser,et al.  Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950–2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing , 2009 .

[385]  E. Xoplaki,et al.  Variability of Climate in Meridional Balkans during the Periods 1675–1715 and 1780–1830 and its Impact on Human Life , 2001 .

[386]  Ramón de Elía,et al.  Internal Variability in Regional Climate Downscaling at the Seasonal Scale , 2007 .

[387]  Eric Guilyardi,et al.  The influence of a weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO , 2006 .

[388]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing , 2010 .

[389]  B. Soden,et al.  Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming , 2006 .

[390]  G. Marston Tropospheric ozone. , 2011, Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP.

[391]  David G. Streets,et al.  Effects of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy‐relevant background surface ozone in the United States , 2008 .

[392]  Pascal Yiou,et al.  On the roles of circulation and aerosols in the decline of mist and dense fog in Europe over the last 30 years , 2009 .

[393]  A. Sturman,et al.  Synoptic and climatological controls of particulate matter pollution in a Southern Hemisphere coastal city , 2013 .

[394]  Sarah M. Kang,et al.  The Interannual Relationship between the Latitude of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the Edge of the Hadley Cell , 2011 .

[395]  Kaarle Kupiainen,et al.  Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security , 2012, Science.

[396]  W. Hazeleger,et al.  Detecting Atlantic MOC Changes in an Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations , 2007 .

[397]  Gerhard Krinner,et al.  An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models , 2012 .

[398]  P. N. Vinayachandran,et al.  Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation , 2004 .

[399]  T. Birner Recent widening of the tropical belt from global tropopause statistics: Sensitivities , 2010 .

[400]  David W. J. Thompson,et al.  Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change , 2002, Science.

[401]  Joyce E. Penner,et al.  Towards the development of a global inventory for black carbon emissions , 1993 .

[402]  Frédérik Meleux,et al.  Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change , 2006 .

[403]  Muyin Wang,et al.  A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? , 2009 .

[404]  T. DelSole,et al.  Multi‐year predictability of temperature and precipitation in multiple climate models , 2012 .

[405]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Summer Monsoon Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian , 2011 .

[406]  Y. Zhang,et al.  Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection , 2012 .

[407]  T. Schneider,et al.  The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM , 2008 .

[408]  Ka-Ming Lau,et al.  Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation , 2006 .

[409]  L. Horowitz,et al.  The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate , 2011 .

[410]  John A. Pyle,et al.  Impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric ozone and its budget , 2010 .

[411]  Yang Zhang,et al.  Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S. using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF/Chem) , 2010 .

[412]  Chun Kit Ho,et al.  Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[413]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries , 2011 .

[414]  J. Tenhunen,et al.  Evapotranspiration and soil water content in a scrub‐oak woodland under carbon dioxide enrichment , 2002 .

[415]  W. M. Cox,et al.  Assessment of interannual ozone variation in urban areas from a climatological perspective , 1996 .

[416]  Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228‐year high‐resolution AGCM simulations , 2012 .

[417]  Toru Miyama,et al.  Development of a four‐dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations , 2008 .

[418]  P. O'Gorman,et al.  The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[419]  Youmin Tang,et al.  The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization , 2013 .

[420]  M. Balmaseda,et al.  Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[421]  Denise L Mauzerall,et al.  Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[422]  A. Dai Drought under global warming: a review , 2011 .

[423]  G. Bates,et al.  Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the winter climate of East China , 2007 .

[424]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves , 2004, Nature.

[425]  T. Palmer,et al.  Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts , 2009 .

[426]  R. Knutti,et al.  Climate model genealogy , 2011 .

[427]  Zhang Jie,et al.  Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center , 2013 .

[428]  B. Kirtman,et al.  The Influence of Atmospheric Noise and Uncertainty in Ocean Initial Conditions on the Limit of Predictability in a Coupled GCM , 2008 .

[429]  G. Carmichael,et al.  The episodic nature of air pollution transport from Asia to North America , 2000 .

[430]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[431]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change , 2008 .

[432]  Victor Brovkin,et al.  Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia; Results from the first set of LUCID experiments , 2012 .

[433]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Changes in snow cover over China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model , 2011 .

[434]  A. Turner,et al.  Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution , 2012 .

[435]  T. Barnett,et al.  The ACPI Project, Element 1: Initializing a Coupled Climate Model from Observed Conditions , 2004 .

[436]  A. Robock Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[437]  J. Penner,et al.  Global chemical transport model study of ozone response to changes in chemical kinetics and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to increasing temperatures: Sensitivities to isoprene nitrate chemistry and grid resolution , 2009 .

[438]  Vimal Mishra,et al.  Relationship between hourly extreme precipitation and local air temperature in the United States , 2012 .

[439]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change , 2009 .

[440]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) , 2004 .

[441]  Stephen M. Griffies,et al.  Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First Century Projections , 2010 .

[442]  D. Smith,et al.  Multi‐year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean , 2011 .

[443]  Matthew D. Collins,et al.  Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem , 2002 .

[444]  N. Bond,et al.  Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems , 2010 .

[445]  Simon J. Brown,et al.  Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk? , 2010 .

[446]  G. Meehl,et al.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by , 2022 .

[447]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications , 2011 .

[448]  X. Yue,et al.  Role of sea surface temperature responses in simulation of the climatic effect of mineral dust aerosol , 2011 .

[449]  Toru Nozawa,et al.  Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) , 2011 .

[450]  M. Tippett,et al.  Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi‐model forecasting? , 2013 .

[451]  A. Clemence,et al.  [Towards the development of a global index of functional disability based on the O.E.C.D. questionnaire. Items in a Swiss survey (author's transl)]. , 1981, Revue d'epidemiologie et de sante publique.

[452]  Arun Kumar,et al.  Finite Samples and Uncertainty Estimates for Skill Measures for Seasonal Prediction , 2009 .

[453]  M. Cai,et al.  Stabilization of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and the Muted Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Global Warming , 2009 .

[454]  L. Polvani,et al.  The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on tropopause height trends. , 2009 .

[455]  H. Douville,et al.  Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[456]  K. Fan,et al.  A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific , 2009 .

[457]  J. Syktus,et al.  The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events , 2009 .

[458]  K. Lau,et al.  Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing : the role of the Tibetan Plateau , 2006 .

[459]  Bryan N. Duncan,et al.  Transatlantic transport of pollution and its effects on surface ozone in Europe and North America , 2002 .

[460]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality , 2009 .

[461]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions , 2004 .

[462]  Martin Wild,et al.  Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land‐based hydrological cycle , 2008 .

[463]  G. Holland,et al.  Tropical cyclones and climate change , 2010, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.

[464]  P. Jones,et al.  Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set , 2012 .

[465]  S. Vavrus,et al.  Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4 , 2009 .

[466]  Nigel W. Arnell,et al.  A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models , 2010 .

[467]  E. Fischer,et al.  Changes in European summer temperature variability revisited , 2012 .

[468]  D. Lawrence,et al.  The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate , 2010 .

[469]  S. Power,et al.  Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model , 2006 .

[470]  T. Shepherd,et al.  The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet , 2008, Science.

[471]  P. Linden,et al.  ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts - Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project , 2009 .

[472]  Pascal Yiou,et al.  Decline of fog, mist and haze in Europe over the past 30 years , 2009 .

[473]  M. Holland,et al.  Simulated Arctic Ocean Freshwater Budgets in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries , 2006 .

[474]  N. Gillett,et al.  Attribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure , 2009 .

[475]  Zong‐Liang Yang,et al.  Sensitivity of biogenic secondary organic aerosols to future climate change at regional scales: An online coupled simulation , 2010 .

[476]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Reliability of decadal predictions , 2012 .

[477]  H. Körnich,et al.  Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in Future Climate Projections , 2008 .

[478]  J. Arblaster,et al.  Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections , 2007 .

[479]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change , 2007 .

[480]  D Hauglustaine,et al.  The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. , 2006, Environmental science & technology.

[481]  Axel Schweiger,et al.  Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn , 2008 .

[482]  René Laprise,et al.  Modeled current and future soil thermal regime for northeast Canada , 2006 .

[483]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere , 1993 .

[484]  S. Power,et al.  Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia , 1999 .

[485]  Alexander Baklanov,et al.  A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe , 2012 .

[486]  M. Palmer,et al.  Detectability of changes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Hadley Centre Climate Models , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[487]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The changing character of precipitation , 2003 .

[488]  M. Winton,et al.  Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point? , 2006 .

[489]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality , 2008 .

[490]  Meric Srokosz,et al.  Past, Present, and Future Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation , 2012 .

[491]  J. Gregory Long‐term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content , 2010 .

[492]  E. Wood,et al.  Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations , 2008 .

[493]  Joanna Struzewska,et al.  Formation and transport of photooxidants over Europe during the July 2006 heat wave – observations and GEM-AQ model simulations , 2007 .

[494]  Kerry A. Emanuel,et al.  Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage , 2011 .

[495]  S. Jeffrey,et al.  Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations , 2012 .

[496]  Christine Wiedinmyer,et al.  The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States , 2008 .

[497]  U. Ulbrich,et al.  Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM , 2007 .

[498]  Bjarne K. A. Hansen,et al.  Simulated Changes in the Freezing Rain Climatology of North America under Global Warming Using a Coupled Climate Model , 2011 .

[499]  P. Hari,et al.  Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming , 2011 .

[500]  J. Seinfeld,et al.  Effect of chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling on predictions of future climate and future levels of tropospheric ozone and aerosols , 2009 .

[501]  T. Woollings Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[502]  J. Kiehl,et al.  Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[503]  D. Jacob,et al.  Trends in Exceedances of the Ozone Air Quality Standard in the Continental United States, 1980-1998 , 2001 .

[504]  M. Dubey,et al.  Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures , 2010 .

[505]  D. Jacob,et al.  Sensitivity of US Air Quality to Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency and Implications of 1980–2006 Climate Change , 2008 .

[506]  S. Manabe,et al.  Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C02 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model , 1995 .

[507]  Marika M. Holland,et al.  The Influence of Sea Ice on Ocean Heat Uptake in Response to Increasing CO2 , 2006 .

[508]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global‐mean precipitation , 2010 .

[509]  M. Lockwood Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[510]  A. Hall,et al.  September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100 , 2009 .

[511]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal Variability of Asian–Australian Monsoon–ENSO–TBO Relationships , 2011 .

[512]  G. Meehl,et al.  Megadroughts in the Indian Monsoon Region and Southwest North America and a Mechanism for Associated Multidecadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2006 .

[513]  T. Knutson,et al.  Multi-Model Assessment of Regional Surface Temperature Trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 20 th Century Simulations , 2013 .

[514]  P. Jones,et al.  Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 , 2006 .

[515]  David G. Streets,et al.  Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030 , 2008 .

[516]  Michael J. Prather,et al.  Global long‐lived chemical modes excited in a 3‐D chemistry transport model: Stratospheric N2O, NOy, O3 and CH4 chemistry , 2010 .

[517]  M. Newman Interannual to Decadal Predictability of Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures , 2007 .

[518]  G. Meehl,et al.  Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region , 2012 .

[519]  Paul A. O'Gorman,et al.  An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change , 2011 .

[520]  Nadine Unger,et al.  Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI , 2006 .

[521]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models , 2012 .