Operational earthquake forecast/prediction

The operational and decision-making problems related to earthquake forecast/prediction and seismic hazard assessment are nowadays a matter of significant debate, particularly on account of the very unsatisfactory global performance of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment at the occurence of most of the recent destructive earthquakes. While it is recognized that operational tools must demonstrate their capability in anticipating large earthquakes and the related ground shaking by rigorous verification and validation process, only few methods proved effective so far. In view of the inherent uncertainties in predicting predictable, the usefulness of any forecast/prediction method can then be judged taking into account the wide range of possible mitigation actions of different levels (from increased preparedness to evacuation). This paper aims to open a debate and complement the Summary and Recommendations by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, established after the earthquake in L’Aquila (M = 6.3, 6 April 2009). The issues related with the definition, validation, and possible use of forecasting/prediction methodologies, are addressed with special emphasis on existing operational practice in Italy.

[1]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Stabilizing Intermediate-Term Medium-Range Earthquake Predictions , 2002 .

[2]  Matthew C. Gerstenberger,et al.  Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California , 2005, Nature.

[3]  J. Bramlet.  Earthquake Prediction and Earthquake Damage Prediction , 1996 .

[4]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8 , 1990 .

[5]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Precursory Activation of Seismicity in Advance of the Kobe, 1995, M = 7.2 Earthquake , 1999 .

[6]  Keiiti Aki,et al.  A Probabilistic Synthesis of Precursory Phenomena , 2013 .

[7]  Giuliano F. Panza,et al.  SEISMIC GROUND MOTION MODELLING AND DAMAGE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS A BRIDGE BETWEEN SEISMOLOGISTS AND SEISMIC ENGINEERS , 2002 .

[8]  S. Stein.  Disaster deferred : how new science is changing our view of earthquake hazards in the Midwest , 2010 .

[9]  Kojiro Irikura,et al.  Advanced Seismic Hazard Assessment , 2011 .

[10]  Kaye M. Shedlock,et al.  The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map , 2000 .

[11]  Vladimir I. Keilis-borok,et al.  Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world , 1990 .

[12]  F. Vaccari,et al.  THE ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS SEISMIC WAVE PROPAGATION IN LATERALLY HETEROGENEOUS ANELASTIC MEDIA: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS TO THE SEISMIC ZONATION , 2005 .

[13]  J Oliver,et al.  Earthquake Prediction , 1987, Journal of the World Association for Emergency and Disaster Medicine.

[14]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions in Italy: a review , 2005 .

[15]  G. M. Molchan,et al.  Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis , 2003 .

[16]  A. A. Soloviev,et al.  Nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction , 2003 .

[17]  Louise H. Kellogg,et al.  Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence? , 2011 .

[18]  Luciana Astiz,et al.  AN EDITOR'S FAREWELL , 2011 .

[19]  William Hung Kan Lee,et al.  International handbook of earthquake and engineering seismology , 2002 .

[20]  Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos,et al.  OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization , 2011 .

[21]  George Molchan,et al.  On the testing of seismicity models , 2011, Acta Geophysica.

[22]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  On the Validation of Earthquake-Forecasting Models: The Case of Pattern Recognition Algorithms , 2003 .

[23]  R. Barzaghi,et al.  The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[24]  F. Vaccari,et al.  Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory , 2011 .

[25]  G. Molchan,et al.  Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis , 2010 .

[26]  F. Vaccari,et al.  Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard and Pattern Recognition Techniques: Time-Dependent Scenarios for North-Eastern Italy , 2011 .

[27]  Robert J. Geller,et al.  Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck: Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing , 2011 .

[28]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8 , 1992 .

[29]  G. Panza,et al.  Coupling geophysical modelling and geodesy to unravel the physics of active faults , 2008, 2008 Second Workshop on Use of Remote Sensing Techniques for Monitoring Volcanoes and Seismogenic Areas.

[30]  Peter Bormann,et al.  From Earthquake Prediction Research to Time-Variable Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications , 2011 .

[31]  D. Turcotte,et al.  Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[32]  T. Utsu.  Probabilities in Earthquake Prediction , 1977 .

[33]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program Maps Are Misleading , 2010 .

[34]  V. I. Keilis-Borok,et al.  The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction , 1990 .

[35]  A. Salam,et al.  PATTERN RECOGNITION TECHNIQUES AND NEO-DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD: TIME DEPENDENT SCENARIOS FOR NORTH-EASTERN ITALY , 2008 .

[36]  Hiroo Kanamori,et al.  Earthquake Prediction: An Overview , 2003 .

[37]  Antonella Peresan,et al.  PATTERN RECOGNITION METHODOLOGIES AND DETERMINISTIC EVALUATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD: A STRATEGY TO INCREASE EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS , 2002 .

[38]  W. Marzocchi.  Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales. , 2008 .