Method for quantitative assessment of the domino effect in industrial sites

Abstract Accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial sites. The most typical primary incidents for a domino effect sequence are explosions (57%), followed by fires (43%) ( Abdolhamidzadeh et al., 2010 ). These former can generate three escalation vectors (heat load, overpressure, and fragments), and may affect the surrounding equipments and/or facilities. If the affected targets are damaged, they may also explode and generate other threats to other surrounding facilities and so on. These chains of accidents may lead to catastrophic consequences and may affect not only the industrial sites, but also people, environment and economy. This paper presents a methodology for quantitative assessment of domino effects caused by fire and explosion on storage areas. The individual and societal risks are also estimated.

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