Predicting risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in the United Kingdom: prospective independent and external validation of QFractureScores

Objective To evaluate the performance of the QFractureScores for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting 364 UK general practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants 2.2 million adults registered with a general practice between 27 June 1994 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-85 (13 million person years), with 25 208 osteoporotic fractures and 12 188 hip fractures. Main outcome measures First (incident) diagnosis of osteoporotic fracture (vertebra, distal radius, or hip) and incident hip fracture recorded in general practice records. Results Results from this independent and external validation of QFractureScores indicated good performance data for both osteoporotic and hip fracture end points. Discrimination and calibration statistics were comparable to those reported in the internal validation of QFractureScores. The hip fracture score had better performance data for both women and men. It explained 63% of the variation in women and 60% of the variation in men, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.86, respectively. The risk score for osteoporotic fracture explained 49% of the variation in women and 38% of the variation in men, with corresponding areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 and 0.74. QFractureScores were well calibrated, with predicted risks closely matching those across all 10ths of risk and for all age groups. Conclusion QFractureScores are useful tools for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in patients in the United Kingdom.