Considerations for the design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies

Public Health Emergencies (PHEs) provide a complex and challenging environment for vaccine evaluation. Under the R&D Blueprint Plan of Action, the World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a group of experts to agree on standard procedures to rapidly evaluate experimental vaccines during PHEs while maintaining the highest scientific and ethical standards. The Blueprint priority diseases, selected for their likelihood to cause PHEs and the lack of adequate medical countermeasures, were used to frame our methodological discussions. Here, we outline major vaccine study designs to be used in PHEs and summarize high-level recommendations for their use in this setting. We recognize that the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the Blueprint priority diseases may be highly uncertain and that the unique characteristics of the vaccines and outbreak settings may affect our study design. To address these challenges, our group underscores the need for novel, flexible, and responsive trial designs. We conclude that assignment to study groups using randomization is a key principle underlying rigorous study design and should be utilized except in exceptional circumstances. Advance planning for vaccine trial designs is critical for rapid and effective response to a PHE and to advance knowledge to address and mitigate future PHEs. One Sentence Summary As part of the WHO research and development Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics, we describe key considerations for the design and analysis of trials and studies to evaluate experimental vaccines during public health emergencies.

[1]  M E Halloran,et al.  Using validation sets for outcomes and exposure to infection in vaccine field studies. , 2001, American journal of epidemiology.

[2]  Lawrence O Gostin,et al.  Will Ebola change the game? Ten essential reforms before the next pandemic. The report of the Harvard-LSHTM Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola , 2015, The Lancet.

[3]  Murray K. Clayton,et al.  BAYES DISCRETE SEQUENTIAL BOUNDARIES FOR CLINICAL TRIALS , 2001 .

[4]  M. Parmar,et al.  More multiarm randomised trials of superiority are needed , 2014, The Lancet.

[5]  John-Arne Røttingen,et al.  The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola , 2015, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[6]  Ross E. G. Upshur,et al.  Randomized controlled trials in the West African Ebola virus outbreak , 2016, Clinical trials.

[7]  M. Hudgens,et al.  Toward Causal Inference With Interference , 2008, Journal of the American Statistical Association.

[8]  S. Pocock Group sequential methods in the design and analysis of clinical trials , 1977 .

[9]  Susan S Ellenberg,et al.  Evaluating interventions for Ebola: The need for randomized trials , 2016, Clinical trials.

[10]  S. Piantadosi Clinical Trials : A Methodologic Perspective , 2005 .

[11]  David L. DeMets,et al.  Data Monitoring Committees in Clinical Trials: A Practical Perspective , 2002 .

[12]  Tony Vangeneugden,et al.  Simulation-guided phase 3 trial design to evaluate vaccine effectiveness to prevent Ebola virus disease infection: Statistical considerations, design rationale, and challenges , 2016, Clinical trials.

[13]  Sebastian Funk,et al.  Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach , 2015, BMJ Open.

[14]  Richard J. Hayes,et al.  Cluster randomised trials , 2009 .

[15]  Jennifer C Nelson,et al.  The test-negative design for estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness. , 2013, Vaccine.

[16]  John-Arne Røttingen,et al.  Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial , 2015, The Lancet.

[17]  Emily R. Busta,et al.  Integrating Clinical Research into Epidemic Response: The Ebola Experience , 2017 .

[18]  J. Sterne,et al.  The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials , 2011, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[19]  C. Grady,et al.  Deciphering assumptions about stepped wedge designs: the case of Ebola vaccine research , 2016, Journal of Medical Ethics.

[20]  P. Ravaud,et al.  Preventing Bias in Cluster Randomised Trials , 2009, PLoS medicine.

[21]  Robert Pinner,et al.  Implementing an Ebola Vaccine Study - Sierra Leone. , 2016, MMWR supplements.

[22]  Peter B Gilbert,et al.  A Sequential Phase 2b Trial Design for Evaluating Vaccine Efficacy and Immune Correlates for Multiple HIV Vaccine Regimens , 2011, Statistical communications in infectious diseases.

[23]  A R Hinman,et al.  Field evaluation of vaccine efficacy. , 1985, Bulletin of the World Health Organization.

[24]  R. J. Hayes,et al.  Design and analysis issues in cluster-randomized trials of interventions against infectious diseases , 2000, Statistical methods in medical research.

[25]  Adam J. Kucharski,et al.  Guiding Vaccine Efficacy Trial Design During Public Health Emergencies: An interactive web-based decision support tool , 2018 .

[26]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases , 2017, bioRxiv.

[27]  Pierre-Stéphane Gsell,et al.  Ring vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV under expanded access in response to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, 2016: an operational and vaccine safety report , 2017, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[28]  Claudio J. Struchiner,et al.  Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies , 2009 .

[29]  P A Lachenbruch,et al.  Intent-to-treat analysis and preventive vaccine efficacy. , 2000, Vaccine.

[30]  C. Bias The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials , 2011 .

[31]  P. O'Brien,et al.  A multiple testing procedure for clinical trials. , 1979, Biometrics.

[32]  De Phung Clinical trials: a methodologic perspective (second edition) Piantadosi S (2005)ISBN: 0471727814; 687 pages; £64.95; ??91.70; $110.00 Wiley; , 2006 .

[33]  John-Arne Røttingen,et al.  Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine in preventing Ebola virus disease: final results from the Guinea ring vaccination, open-label, cluster-randomised trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!) , 2017, The Lancet.

[34]  M Elizabeth Halloran,et al.  DESIGN OF VACCINE TRIALS DURING OUTBREAKS WITH AND WITHOUT A DELAYED VACCINATION COMPARATOR. , 2018, The annals of applied statistics.

[35]  David L. DeMets,et al.  Data Monitoring Committees in Clinical Trials , 2002 .

[36]  Martha Nason,et al.  Statistics and logistics: Design of Ebola vaccine trials in West Africa , 2016, Clinical trials.

[37]  Kai Kupferschmidt,et al.  Infectious Diseases. Ebola vaccine trials raise ethical issues. , 2014, Science.

[38]  Lauren Ancel Meyers,et al.  Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis. , 2015, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[39]  K. K. Lan,et al.  Discrete sequential boundaries for clinical trials , 1983 .

[40]  M E Halloran,et al.  Measuring vaccine efficacy from epidemics of acute infectious agents. , 1993, Statistics in medicine.

[41]  Marie Paule Kieny,et al.  WHO R&D Blueprint: a global coordination mechanism for R&D preparedness , 2017, The Lancet.

[42]  Domenic J. Reda,et al.  Clinical Trials Design in Operative and Non Operative Invasive Procedures , 2017 .

[43]  Thomas R Fleming,et al.  Current issues in non‐inferiority trials , 2008, Statistics in medicine.