The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

Colorado Water Institute, National Science Foundation; NOAA Climate Assessment for the Southwest; U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Climate Science Center

[1]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge , 2012, Climatic Change.

[2]  F. Babst,et al.  Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack , 2015 .

[3]  D. Cayan,et al.  The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes , 2011 .

[4]  G. Holland,et al.  Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state , 2016 .

[5]  David M. Meko,et al.  Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data , 2014 .

[6]  W. Michael Hanemann,et al.  The Central Arizona Project , 2002 .

[7]  Steven W. Running,et al.  Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States , 2015 .

[8]  J. Eischeid,et al.  Homogeneity of Gridded Precipitation Datasets for the Colorado River Basin , 2010 .

[9]  David W. Pierce,et al.  Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[10]  T. Painter,et al.  Combined impacts of current and future dust deposition and regional warming on Colorado River Basin snow dynamics and hydrology , 2013 .

[11]  C. Daly,et al.  A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain , 1994 .

[12]  Julie A. Vano,et al.  Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature , 2012 .

[13]  E. Maurer,et al.  Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin , 2013, PloS one.

[14]  Naomi Naik,et al.  Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States , 2013 .

[15]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2007 .

[16]  Balaji Rajagopalan,et al.  Colorado River Basin Hydroclimatic Variability , 2012 .

[17]  Nate G. McDowell,et al.  On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene , 2015 .

[18]  Dara Entekhabi,et al.  Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms in Land-Atmosphere Interaction , 1996 .

[19]  T. Ault,et al.  The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models , 2012 .

[20]  Robert W. Adler.  Revisiting the Colorado River Compact: Time for a Change? , 2008 .

[21]  K. Price,et al.  Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[22]  R. Seager,et al.  Climatology, Variability, and Trends in the U.S. Vapor Pressure Deficit, an Important Fire-Related Meteorological Quantity* , 2015 .

[23]  David W. Pierce,et al.  Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[24]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  A. Pitman.  The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models , 2003 .

[26]  S. Kanae,et al.  Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs , 2014 .

[27]  J. Randerson,et al.  Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  THE WCRP CMIP 3 MULTIMODEL DATASET A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2017 .

[29]  P. Gleick,et al.  Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado Basin to climatic changes , 1991 .

[30]  Albert Rango,et al.  Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande basin , 2015 .

[31]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[32]  Kiyomi Morino,et al.  Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow , 2014 .

[33]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Distinguishing pronounced droughts in the southwestern United States: seasonality and effects of warmer temperatures. , 2009 .

[34]  David W. Pierce,et al.  When will Lake Mead go dry? , 2008 .

[35]  P. Milly,et al.  Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying , 2016 .

[36]  R. Seager,et al.  Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 , 2015 .

[37]  Q. Fu,et al.  Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate , 2013 .

[38]  N. Hundley,et al.  The Central Arizona Project 1918-1968 , 1977 .

[39]  D. Frierson,et al.  Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones , 2012 .

[40]  G. McCabe,et al.  Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow , 2016 .

[41]  N. Graham,et al.  Five millennia of paleotemperature from tree-rings in the Great Basin, USA , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[42]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[43]  C. Dott.  Restoring Colorado River Ecosystems: A Troubled Sense of Immensity , 2010 .

[44]  A. Dai.  Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models , 2013 .

[45]  J. Overpeck.  Climate science: The challenge of hot drought , 2013, Nature.

[46]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin , 2004 .

[47]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin , 2006 .

[48]  A. V. Vecchia,et al.  Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate , 2005, Nature.

[49]  J. Prairie,et al.  Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study , 2012 .

[50]  N. McDowell,et al.  A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests , 2010 .

[51]  B. Cook,et al.  Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest , 2016, Science Advances.

[52]  D. Ficklin,et al.  Comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 projected hydrologic conditions over the Upper Colorado River Basin , 2016 .

[53]  Steven W. Running,et al.  Creating a topoclimatic daily air temperature dataset for the conterminous United States using homogenized station data and remotely sensed land skin temperature , 2015 .

[54]  R. Seager,et al.  Global warming and 21st century drying , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[55]  Scott St. George,et al.  The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium , 2013 .

[56]  B. Cook,et al.  Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains , 2015, Science Advances.

[57]  Peter A. Troch,et al.  Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[58]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  One-dimensional statistical dynamic representation of subgrid spatial variability of precipitation in the two-layer variable infiltration capacity model , 1996 .

[59]  Pedro Viterbo,et al.  The land surface‐atmosphere interaction: A review based on observational and global modeling perspectives , 1996 .

[60]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[61]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[62]  Gregory J. McCabe,et al.  Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin , 2007 .

[63]  S. Solomon,et al.  Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[64]  Balaji Rajagopalan,et al.  Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate? , 2009 .

[65]  K. Kipfmueller,et al.  Reconstructed Temperature And Precipitation On A Millennial Timescale From Tree-Rings In The Southern Colorado Plateau, U.S.A. , 2005 .

[66]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin , 2007 .

[67]  Peter H. Gleick,et al.  Climate change and California drought in the 21st century , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[68]  Daniel Griffin,et al.  How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? , 2014 .

[69]  R. Seager,et al.  Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America , 2007, Science.

[70]  R. Myneni,et al.  Reduced streamflow in water-stressed climates consistent with CO2 effects on vegetation , 2016 .

[71]  Andrew W. Wood,et al.  Response to reviewers ’ comments for : Interactive comment on “ The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin ” , 2012 .

[72]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review , 2010 .

[73]  Connie A. Woodhouse,et al.  Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin , 2006 .

[74]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Causes of the 2011–14 California Drought , 2015 .

[75]  Mark D. Zelinka,et al.  Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record , 2016, Nature.