The role of spatially explicit models in land-use change research: a case study for cropping patterns in China

Single research methodologies do not suffice for a complete analysis of land-use change. Instead, a sequence of methodologies is needed that link up and integrate disciplinary components over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a modelling methodology is presented aiming at the analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use at the regional level. The methodology explores the dynamic functioning of land-use systems, which is essential to bridge the gap between studies identifying problems associated with land-use change and studies aiming at understanding and manipulating land-use change processes. An illustration of the methodology is given for China where we have simulated a scenario of near-future (1991–2010) changes in land-use patterns. The methodology is adapted to include the nested simulation of different crop types in addition to the simulation of land-cover change. Results are presented for changes in the spatial distribution of cultivated land and special emphasis is given to shifts in the distribution of different crops. In the northern part of the country a decrease in the proportion wheat within the cropping system is expected whereas in the southern part the proportion of rice is decreasing. Corn and vegetable crops are expected to become more important within the cropping system in these parts of the country.

[1]  E. Ostrom,et al.  The concept of scale and the human dimensions of global change: a survey , 2000, Ecological Economics.

[2]  P. Vereijken,et al.  Manual for prototyping integrated and ecological arable farming systems (I/EAFS) in interaction with pilot farms , 1999 .

[3]  J. Lin.  How did China feed itself in the past? How will China feed itself in the future? , 1998 .

[4]  M. Whitby,et al.  Agri-environmental indicators: issues and choices , 1998 .

[5]  G. K. Heilig,et al.  Anthropogenic factors in land-use change in China. , 1997 .

[6]  Robert M. Caldwell,et al.  A generic model of hierarchy for systems analysis and simulation , 1998 .

[7]  Matthias Ruth,et al.  Using Dynamic Modeling to Scope Environmental Problems and Build Consensus , 1998, Environmental management.

[8]  Hanqin Tian,et al.  Modelling spatial and temporal patterns of tropical land use change , 1995 .

[9]  Lu Feng.  Grain versus food: A hidden issue in China's food policy debate , 1998 .

[10]  Felix Müller,et al.  Hierarchical approaches to ecosystem theory , 1992 .

[11]  Richard H. Moss,et al.  Relating land use and global land-cover change , 1993 .

[12]  J. Bouma,et al.  Land use change under conditions of high population pressure : the case of Java , 1999 .

[13]  P. H. Vereijken,et al.  A methodical way of prototyping integrated and ecological arable farming systems (I/EAFS) in interaction with pilot farms , 1997 .

[14]  Peter H. Verburg,et al.  Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China , 2000 .

[15]  S. Fan,et al.  Why projections on China’s future food supply and demand differ , 1997 .

[16]  Peter H. Verburg,et al.  Multi-scale characterization of land use pattern and its changes in China. , 2000 .

[17]  Kasper Kok,et al.  A method and application of multi-scale validation in spatial land use models , 2001 .

[18]  B. Bouman,et al.  Exploring options for sustainable beef cattle ranching in the humid tropics: a case study for the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica , 1999 .

[19]  S. Levin.  The problem of pattern and scale in ecology , 1992 .

[20]  C. J. M. Musters,et al.  Defining Socio-Environmental Systems for Sustainable Development , 1998 .

[21]  J. Imbernon.  Changes in agricultural practice and landscape over a 60-year period in North Lampung, Sumatra , 1999 .

[22]  Samantha Jones.  From meta-narratives to flexible frameworks: an actor level analysis of land degradation in Highland Tanzania , 1999 .

[23]  B. Barbier,et al.  Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa , 1998 .

[24]  C. Nunes,et al.  Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC): Implementation Strategy , 1999 .

[25]  Lester R. Brown,et al.  Who Will Feed China?: Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet , 1995 .

[26]  John Wainio,et al.  International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007 , 1997 .

[27]  Brett E. Bouma,et al.  Focus Issue: Optical Coherence Tomography , 1998 .

[28]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  China's Environmental Crisis: An Enquiry into the Limits of National Development , 1993 .

[29]  H. van Keulen,et al.  Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of livestock in China , 1999 .

[30]  K. Hsü,et al.  The Agriculture of China , 1991 .

[31]  Anthony W King,et al.  Aggregating Fine-Scale Ecological Knowledge to Model Coarser-Scale Attributes of Ecosystems. , 1992, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[32]  G. D. Koning,et al.  Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources , 1999 .

[33]  P. Stern,et al.  People and pixels : linking remote sensing and social science , 1999 .

[34]  R. Carpenter.  China's Environmental Crisis: An Inquiry into the Limits of National Development (review) , 2011 .

[35]  Bas A. M. Bouman,et al.  Eco-regional approaches for sustainable land use and food production , 1995, Systems Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Development.

[36]  J. Bouma,et al.  A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use , 1999 .

[37]  T. Wahl,et al.  China's Rural Household Demand for Fruit and Vegetables , 1998, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

[38]  Guoqiang Cheng.  Market prospects for upland crops in China , 1997 .

[39]  A. Veldkamp,et al.  CLUE-CR: An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica , 1996 .

[40]  G. Brady.  Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action , 1993 .

[41]  S. Levin.  THE PROBLEM OF PATTERN AND SCALE IN ECOLOGY , 1992 .

[42]  L. O. Fresco,et al.  Agro-ecological knowledge at different scales , 1995 .

[43]  N. Alexandratos.  China's consumption of cereals and the capacity of the rest of the world to increase exports , 1997 .

[44]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  Impact of Macroeconomic Change on Deforestation in South Cameroon: Integration of Household Survey and Remotely-Sensed Data , 2000 .

[45]  J. Shen,et al.  Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China , 1996, Environment & planning A.

[46]  A. Veldkamp,et al.  Multi - scale modelling of land use change dynamics in Ecuador , 1999 .

[47]  X. Cheng,et al.  China's Livestock and Related Agriculture: Projections to 2025 , 1994 .

[48]  Tim Dyson,et al.  Full House: Reassessing the Earth's Population Carrying Capacity , 1995 .

[49]  R. O'Neill,et al.  Land use with endogenous environmental degradation and conservation , 1992 .

[50]  Peter H. Verburg,et al.  Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China , 1999 .

[51]  P. Zander,et al.  Modelling multiple objectives of land use for sustainable development , 1999 .

[52]  R. Rabbinge,et al.  Exploratory land use studies and their role in strategic policy making. , 1998 .