A Novel TRM Calculation Method by Probabilistic Concept

In a new competitive environment, it becomes possible for the third party to access a transmission facility. From this structure, to efficiently manage the utilization of the transmission network, a new definition about Available Transfer Capability (ATC) has been proposed. According to the North American ElectricReliability Council (NERC)’s definition, ATC depends on several parameters, i. e. Total Transfer Capability (TTC), Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM). This paper is focused on the calculation of TRM which is one of the security margin reserved for any uncertainty of system conditions. The TRM calculation by probabilistic method is proposed in this paper. Based on the modeling of load forecast error and error in transmission line limitation, various cases of transmission transfer capability and its related probabilistic nature can be calculated. By consideration of the proposed concept of risk analysis, the appropriate required amount of TRM can be obtained. The objective of this research is to provide realistic information on the actual ability of the network which may be an alternative choice for system operators to make an appropriate decision in the competitive market. The advantages of the proposed method are illustrated by application to the IEEJ-WEST10 model system.

[1]  Vijay Vittal,et al.  Increasing thermal rating by risk analysis , 1999 .

[2]  I. Dobson,et al.  Sensitivity of Transfer Capability Margins with a Fast Formula , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[3]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Reliability evaluation of power systems , 1984 .

[4]  Akihiko Yokoyama,et al.  Total Transfer Capability Evaluation using Two-Step Method , 2002 .

[5]  Akihiko Yokoyama,et al.  Consideration of an appropriate TTC by probabilistic approach , 2004 .

[6]  Peter W. Sauer.  Sources of uncertainty and error in available transfer capability computation , 1999, 1999 IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.99CH36364).

[7]  T. O. Seppa.  Increasing transmission capacity by real time monitoring , 2002, 2002 IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37309).

[8]  Peter W. Sauer.  Alternatives for calculating transmission reliability margin (TRM) in available transfer capability (ATC) , 1998, Proceedings of the Thirty-First Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[9]  G. Anders,et al.  Available transmission capability-sell firm or interruptible? , 1999 .

[10]  W. J. Steeley,et al.  Ambient temperature corrected dynamic transmission line ratings at two PG&E locations , 1991 .

[11]  Akihiko Yokoyama,et al.  Application of AC equivalent to total transfer capability evaluation using two-step method , 2002, Proceedings. International Conference on Power System Technology.

[12]  G. A. Hamoud,et al.  Assessment of available transfer capability of transmission systems , 2000 .

[13]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Reliability evaluation of engineering systems : concepts and techniques , 1992 .

[14]  M.G. Da Silva,et al.  Solution of simultaneous transfer capability problem by means of Monte Carlo simulation and primal-dual interior-point method , 2000, PowerCon 2000. 2000 International Conference on Power System Technology. Proceedings (Cat. No.00EX409).