No leading role for industrial black carbon in forcing 19 th century glacier retreat in the Alps

Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their 15 presence in ambient air and snow changes radiative properties of these media, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time. Starting around 1860 AD, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19 century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of 20 industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. The basis for this hypothesis were model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps. Here we present sub-annually resolved, well-replicated concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti 25 ice core in the Alps from 1741-2015 AD. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19 century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in 1875 AD, the time when European rBC emission rates started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80% of their total 19 century length reduction. Industrial BC emissions can, therefore, not been considered as the primary forcing for the rapid 30 deglaciation at the end of the Little Ice Age in the Alps. BC records from the Alps and Greenland also reveal the limitations of bottom-up emission inventories to represent a realistic evolution of anthropogenic BC emissions since preindustrial times.

[1]  A. Stohl,et al.  Lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice indicates European emissions tracked plagues, wars, and imperial expansion during antiquity , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2]  A. Robinson,et al.  Gasoline cars produce more carbonaceous particulate matter than modern filter-equipped diesel cars , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[3]  M. Toohey,et al.  Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE , 2017 .

[4]  P. Mayewski,et al.  Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low-accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millennium , 2017 .

[5]  A. Robinson,et al.  Review of Urban Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Gasoline and Diesel Motor Vehicle Emissions. , 2017, Environmental science & technology.

[6]  D. Simpson,et al.  Deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe 1900–2050. Model calculations and comparison to historical observations , 2017 .

[7]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations , 2016 .

[8]  M. Evans,et al.  Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents , 2016, Nature.

[9]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects , 2016, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change.

[10]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[11]  R. Röthlisberger,et al.  Millennial changes in North American wildfire and soil activity over the last glacial cycle , 2015 .

[12]  M. Winstrup,et al.  Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years , 2015, Nature.

[13]  K. Steffen,et al.  Greenland precipitation trends in a long‐term instrumental climate context (1890–2012): evaluation of coastal and ice core records , 2015 .

[14]  Ian Baker,et al.  Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[15]  S. Brönnimann,et al.  Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”* , 2014 .

[16]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  End of the Little Ice Age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[17]  T. Holzer-Popp,et al.  Recommendations for reporting "black carbon" measurements , 2013 .

[18]  Woo-Seop Lee,et al.  Study of aerosol effect on accelerated snow melting over the Tibetan Plateau during boreal spring , 2013 .

[19]  T. Kirchgeorg,et al.  Temporal variations of perfluoroalkyl substances and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in alpine snow. , 2013, Environmental pollution.

[20]  B. DeAngelo,et al.  Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment , 2013 .

[21]  M. Chin,et al.  Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations , 2013 .

[22]  M. Flanner Arctic climate sensitivity to local black carbon , 2013 .

[23]  J. McConnell,et al.  A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years , 2013 .

[24]  O. Eisen,et al.  Determining the age distribution of Colle Gnifetti, Monte Rosa, Swiss Alps, by combining ice cores, ground-penetrating radar and a simple flow model , 2013, Journal of Glaciology.

[25]  Eric Ruggieri,et al.  A Bayesian approach to detecting change points in climatic records , 2013 .

[26]  R. Allan,et al.  Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations , 2012 .

[27]  Timothy R. Dallmann,et al.  Elucidating secondary organic aerosol from diesel and gasoline vehicles through detailed characterization of organic carbon emissions , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[29]  T. Painter,et al.  Dust radiative forcing in snow of the Upper Colorado River Basin: 2. Interannual variability in radiative forcing and snowmelt rates , 2012 .

[30]  A. Nesje,et al.  Climate and glacier fluctuations at Jostedalsbreen and Folgefonna, southwestern Norway and in the western Alps from the ‘Little Ice Age’ until the present: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2012 .

[31]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Time of emergence of climate signals , 2012 .

[32]  S. Kaspari,et al.  Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860–2000 AD , 2011 .

[33]  A. Stohl,et al.  Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions , 2010 .

[34]  Michele Brunetti,et al.  The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperature series 1760–2007 , 2010 .

[35]  Woo-Seop Lee,et al.  Enhanced surface warming and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau induced by absorbing aerosols , 2010 .

[36]  H. Synal,et al.  Towards radiocarbon dating of ice cores , 2009 .

[37]  F. Anselmetti,et al.  Mineral dust and elemental black carbon records from an Alpine ice core (Colle Gnifetti glacier) over the last millennium , 2009 .

[38]  S. Szidat,et al.  A novel radiocarbon dating technique applied to an ice core from the Alps indicating late Pleistocene ages , 2009 .

[39]  M. R. van den Broeke,et al.  Retreating alpine glaciers: increased melt rates due to accumulation of dust (Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland) , 2009, Journal of Glaciology.

[40]  J. McConnell,et al.  Coal burning leaves toxic heavy metal legacy in the Arctic , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[41]  David Frank,et al.  Warmer early instrumental measurements versus colder reconstructed temperatures: shooting at a moving target , 2007 .

[42]  D. Koch,et al.  Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies , 2007 .

[43]  U. Schotterer,et al.  Historical record of European emissions of heavy metals to the atmosphere since the 1650s from alpine snow/ice cores drilled near Monte Rosa. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[44]  J. Hansen,et al.  Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[45]  P. Gabrielli,et al.  Post 17th-century changes of European PAH emissions recorded in high-altitude Alpine snow and ice. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[46]  T. Eck,et al.  Variability of Absorption and Optical Properties of Key Aerosol Types Observed in Worldwide Locations , 2002 .

[47]  U. Schotterer,et al.  Anthropogenic versus natural sources of atmospheric sulphate from an Alpine ice core , 1999 .

[48]  U. Baltensperger,et al.  Historical record of carbonaceous particle concentrations from a European high-alpine glacier (Colle Gnifetti, Switzerland) , 1999 .

[49]  C. C. Chuang,et al.  Climate forcing by carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols , 1998 .

[50]  H. Wanner,et al.  Aerosol transport to the high Alpine sites Jungfraujoch (3454 m asl) and Colle Gnifetti (4452 m asl) , 1998 .

[51]  U. Schotterer,et al.  A historical record of ammonium concentrations from a glacier in the Alps , 1996 .

[52]  Heinz W. Gäggeler,et al.  A130 years deposition record of sulfate, nitrate and chloride from a high-alpine glacier , 1995 .

[53]  J. Coakley,et al.  Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols , 1992, Science.

[54]  H. Graf,et al.  Emissions , 2021, The Green Building Materials Manual.

[55]  J. Gabrieli,et al.  ANTHROPOCENE-NATURAL AND MAN-MADE ALTERATIONS OF THE EARTH The Alps in the age of the Anthropocene : the impact of human activities on the cryosphere recorded in the Colle Gnifetti glacier , 2014 .

[56]  © Author(s) 2010. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 2010 .

[57]  HANSEN ET AL.: CLIMATE SIMULATIONS FOR 1880-2003 WITH GISS MODEL E Electronic Supplementary Material for Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE , 2007 .

[58]  J. Feichter,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Global Indirect Aerosol Effects: a Review , 2005 .

[59]  D. Wagenbach,et al.  Northward Transport of Saharan Dust Recorded in a Deep Alpine Ice Core , 1996 .