Urban form and last-mile goods movement: Factors affecting vehicle miles travelled and emissions

Abstract There are established relationships between urban form and passenger travel, but less is known about urban form and goods movement. The work presented in this paper evaluates how the design of a delivery service and the urban form in which it operates affects its performance, as measured by vehicle miles travelled, CO 2 , NOx, and PM10 emissions. This work compares simulated amounts of VMT, CO 2 , NOx, and PM10 generated by last mile travel in a number of different development patterns and in a number of different goods movement structures, including various warehouse locations. Last mile travel includes personal travel or delivery vehicles delivering goods to customers. Regression models for each goods movement scheme and models that compare sets of goods movement schemes were developed. The most influential variables in all models were measures of roadway density and proximity of a service area to the regional warehouse. These efforts will support urban planning for goods movement, inform policies designed to mitigate the impacts of goods movement vehicles, and provide insights into achieving sustainability targets, especially as online shopping and goods delivery become more prevalent.