A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading

A 0.5-degree grid-based assessment of the scarcity of global water resources including virtual water trading has been made. The three components of water availability considered for each grid were local runoff, routed flow from upstream and virtual water trading. Several assumptions were postulated to convert country-base estimations of virtual water trading to grid values. The results show that unequal spatial distribution of global water resources had been considerably neutralized by virtual water trading. A large proportion of people in the Middle-East, North-Africa and Sub-Sahara region are able to relieve their water stress through virtual water import. The paper also reports two hypothetical scenarios with extremes of natural flow availability based on the presence and absence of routed upstream flow.

[1]  Lisa J. Graumlich,et al.  Interactive Canopies for a Climate Model , 1998 .

[2]  C. Vörösmarty,et al.  Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. , 2000, Science.

[3]  I. Faisal,et al.  Trading virtual water between Bangladesh and India: a politico-economic dilemma , 2004 .

[4]  S. N. Kulshreshtha,et al.  World Water Resources and Regional Vulnerability: Impact of Future Changes , 1993 .

[5]  Hong Yang,et al.  China's Regional Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade , 2001 .

[6]  Peter H. Gleick,et al.  Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World , 1997 .

[7]  T. Oki,et al.  Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP)—A Global River Channel Network , 1998 .

[8]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources , 1999 .

[9]  Naota Hanasaki,et al.  GSWP-2 Multimodel Analysis and Implications for Our Perception of the Land Surface , 2006 .

[10]  Tony Allan,et al.  The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the Global Economy , 2001 .

[11]  Mutasem El-Fadel,et al.  The concept of ‘virtual water’ and its applicability in Lebanon , 2003 .

[12]  J. A. Allan,et al.  Virtual Water: A Strategic Resource Global Solutions to Regional Deficits , 1998 .

[13]  P. Döll,et al.  Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future “business-as-usual” conditions , 2003 .

[14]  D. Randall,et al.  A Revised Land Surface Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMS. Part I: Model Formulation , 1996 .

[15]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change , 2001 .

[16]  J. Allan,et al.  Virtual Water - the Water, Food, and Trade Nexus. Useful Concept or Misleading Metaphor? , 2003 .

[17]  A. Dalcher,et al.  A Simple Biosphere Model (SIB) for Use within General Circulation Models , 1986 .

[18]  P. Döll,et al.  A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation , 2003 .

[19]  S. Kanae,et al.  Global assessment of current water resources using total runoff integrating pathways , 2001 .

[20]  Taikan Oki,et al.  Assessment of Annual Runoff from Land Surface Models Using Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) , 1999 .

[21]  Nigel W. Arnell,et al.  A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain , 1999 .

[22]  A. Hoekstra Virtual water trade : A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international crop trade , 2003 .

[23]  H. Hakimian Water Scarcity and Food Imports: An Empirical Investigation of the 'Virtual Water' Hypothesis in the MENA (Middle East, North Africa) Region , 2003 .

[24]  A. Hoekstra,et al.  Globalisation of water resources: Global virtual water flows in relation to international crop trade , 2005 .

[25]  Ann Henderson-Sellers,et al.  Biosphere-atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) for the NCAR Community Climate Model , 1986 .

[26]  D. Whittington Visions of Nile basin development , 2004 .

[27]  Alexander J. B. Zehnder,et al.  Water Scarcity and Food Import: A Case Study for Southern Mediterranean Countries , 2002 .

[28]  W. Coyle,et al.  Changing Structure of Global Food Consumption and Trade , 2001 .

[29]  Mewrew Occasional PRECIPITATION, PEOPLE, PIPELINES AND POWER: TOWARDS A ÔVIRTUAL WATERÕ BASED POLITICAL ECOLOGY DISCOURSE , 1999 .

[30]  P. Q. Hung,et al.  Globalisation of water resources : international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade , 2005 .

[31]  Carmen Revenga,et al.  Pilot analysis of global ecosystems : freshwater systems , 2000 .

[32]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[33]  M Falkenmark,et al.  Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches. Aspects of vulnerability in semi-arid development. , 1989, Natural resources forum.

[34]  Dennis Wichelns,et al.  The role of ‘virtual water’ in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals, with an example from Egypt , 2001 .