The Air Force Pilot Shortage: A Crisis for Operational Units?

Abstract : The United States Air Force is facing the largest peacetime pilot shortage in its history. This report examines the origin and nature of the shortage along with retention issues, and shows that the real problem is experience levels in operational units. It includes insight gained from RAND's participation in the Rated Management Task Force (RMTF) convened by the Air Force Chief of Staff to define and study these issues. The study was undertaken in the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program and the Resource Management Program of RAND's Project AIR FORCE. It originated in a project on readiness but later was tailored to address issues raised within the Air Force. The study team expanded its endeavor to incorporate direct assistance work on pilot retention and rated management for the DCS/Plans and Operations and the DCS/Personnel, Headquarters USAF. This report also documents response to specific questions raised by the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force regarding the potential for Total Force alternatives to alleviate active unit experience problems that the analysis identified. The study team communicated key results to appropriate Air Force leaders before the Four-Star Rated Summit made its critical policy decisions on pilot production and absorption for Fiscal Year 2000 and beyond. The report should be of interest to those concerned with rated management and pilot retention problems, operational unit readiness, and Total Force manning and integration initiatives.