Evaluation of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) and the Collected Data

To protect and secure food resources for the United States, it is crucial to have a method to compare food systems' criticality. In 2007, the U.S. government funded development of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) to determine which food and agriculture systems were most critical to the nation. FASCAT was developed in a collaborative process involving government officials and food industry subject matter experts (SMEs). After development, data were collected using FASCAT to quantify threats, vulnerabilities, consequences, and the impacts on the United States from failure of evaluated food and agriculture systems. To examine FASCAT's utility, linear regression models were used to determine: (1) which groups of questions posed in FASCAT were better predictors of cumulative criticality scores; (2) whether the items included in FASCAT's criticality method or the smaller subset of FASCAT items included in DHS's risk analysis method predicted similar criticality scores. Akaike's information criterion was used to determine which regression models best described criticality, and a mixed linear model was used to shrink estimates of criticality for individual food and agriculture systems. The results indicated that: (1) some of the questions used in FASCAT strongly predicted food or agriculture system criticality; (2) the FASCAT criticality formula was a stronger predictor of criticality compared to the DHS risk formula; (3) the cumulative criticality formula predicted criticality more strongly than weighted criticality formula; and (4) the mixed linear regression model did not change the rank-order of food and agriculture system criticality to a large degree.

[1]  Louis Anthony Tony Cox What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note. , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[2]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  Myriam Dunn,et al.  The socio-political dimensions of critical information infrastructure protection (CIIP) , 2005, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructures.

[4]  Todd Masse,et al.  The Department of Homeland Security's Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress , 2007 .

[5]  Bilal M Ayyub,et al.  Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All‐Hazards Framework , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[6]  James P. Peerenboom,et al.  Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies , 2001 .

[7]  M. Widdowson,et al.  Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States—Major Pathogens , 2011, Emerging infectious diseases.

[8]  Terje Aven,et al.  The Role of Quantitative Risk Assessments for Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty and Delineating Appropriate Risk Management Options, with Special Emphasis on Terrorism Risk , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[9]  Ivan Mervielde,et al.  The five-factor model of personality and Holland's RIASEC interest types , 1997 .

[10]  James S. Hodges,et al.  State Officials’ Perceptions of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT), Food-system Risk, and Food Defense Funding , 2014 .

[11]  S. Kennedy,et al.  The development and use of the Food and Agriculture Systems Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) , 2013 .

[12]  Eric Klinenberg,et al.  Of risk and pork: urban security and the politics of objectivity , 2010 .

[13]  Charles Vlek What can national risk assessors learn from decision theorists and psychologists? , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Louis Anthony Tony Cox,et al.  Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks , 2008 .

[15]  George W. Bush Homeland Security Presidential Directive 19: Combating Terrorist Use of Explosives in the United States , 2007 .

[16]  Gregory S Parnell,et al.  Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[17]  Hilde Kruse,et al.  Food-borne diseases — The challenges of 20 years ago still persist while new ones continue to emerge , 2010, International Journal of Food Microbiology.

[18]  B. Ellingwood,et al.  Homeland security: a case study in risk aversion for public decision-making , 2011 .

[19]  C. Wise,et al.  Organizing the Federal System for Homeland Security: Problems, Issues, and Dilemmas , 2002 .