Models of jury decision making: A critical review.

Several models of jury decision making are reviewed. In each instance the model is described and compared with related models, its assumptions are scrutinized, its fit to normative data is evaluated, and possible revisions and extensions of the model are discussed. Models reviewed include (a) multinomial decision schemes designed to adduce implicit decision rules used in jury decision making, (b) binomial models of jury voting that use simplifying assumptions about jury decision making to assess the impact of explicit decision rules and jury size on verdict distributions, (c) Bayesian models that use normative data to estimate prior probabilities of defendants' "convictability" and juror accuracy, (d) models that assess the relationships among jury size, decision rule, and jury accuracy, (e) models that examine the relationship between juror and jury errors, and (f) a computer simulation that uses simple assumptions about group persuasion and individual differences in jurors' resistance to persuasion to model results from empirical studies of jury decision making.

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