Manhunting : a methodology for finding persons of national interest

Abstract : The asymmetrical threats that challenge U.S. national policies are not large-standing armies, but rather individuals who seek to usurp and coerce U.S. national interests. The nature of today's threats call for the U.S. military to change from finding, fixing, and destroying the enemy's forces to identifying, locating and capturing rogue individuals to destroy networks. To counter such threats, the U.S. Government will have to quickly and efficiently identify and find these targets globally. Unfortunately, no military doctrine, framework, or process currently exists for finding and apprehending Persons of National Interest (PONIs). Since military planners and intelligence analysts are neither educated nor trained in the methods or procedures necessary to find and capture PONIs, this thesis proposes a methodology to do so. The U.S. Government's ability to prosecute the war on terrorism today, and to find and apprehend PONIs in the future, depends on its ability to develop and institutionalize a comprehensive manhunting strategy now. The primary research question is as follows: How do military planners and intelligence analysts search, locate, and capture fugitives who operate within networks that offer support, cover, and security? The following are subsidiary research questions: (1) What makes it difficult for the U.S. military to capture fugitives?; (2) What differences exist between the hiding characteristics of fugitives who operate in a cellular network and those who don't have any formalized organizational structure?; (3) What processes do other governmental agencies use to find fugitives?; (4) How do social networks, behavior patterns, and environmental factors impact the fugitive's decision making?; (5) How can search game theory be applied to manhunting?; (6) What deception and denial techniques do fugitives use to mask their activities?; and (7) Is there a method to detect active deception by fugitives?