论文信息 - Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections

Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections

This symposium presents 13 articles forecasting the 2012 US national elections. Included in this collection are the eight national and one state presidential vote forecasting models published in PS: Political Science & Politics during the 2008 elections along with three additional forecasts and one article offering a composite of the forecasts. Although the focus remains on the presidential contest, as in past years, several articles extend their scope to cover the congressional elections as well.

James E. Campbell

[1] James E. Campbell. When the Fundamentals are Trumped: The 2008 Wall Street Meltdown Election and Election Forecasting , 2011 .

[2] The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis , 2010 .

[3] James E. Campbell. THE 2008 CAMPAIGN AND THE FORECASTS DERAILED , 2009, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[4] James E. Campbell. The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote , 2000 .

[5] Michael S. Lewis-Beck,et al. Forecasting presidential elections: A comparison of naive models , 1984 .

[6] L. Sigelman,et al. Why Does Presidential Popularity Decline? A Test of the Expectation/Disillusion Theory , 1983 .

[7] L. Sigelman,et al. Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension , 1983 .

[8] S. Rosenstone. Forecasting Presidential Elections , 1983 .

[9] Lee Sigelman,et al. Presidential Popularityand Presidential Elections , 1979 .

[10] Ray C. Fair,et al. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President , 1978 .