Tourism forecasting using SARIMA models in Chilean regions

In this paper we search for the best SARIMA specification for forecasting arrivals in thirteen regions of Chile. We use monthly time series of arrivals from January 2004 to March 2009. The forecasting performance is assessed using data for the period October 2008 to March 2009. We use three methods for the specification of the model; the Box-Jenkins method with Akaike criterium, the method of minimizing the forecast error and the regARIMA method of the X12-ARIMA package. We compare the performance of the three methods according to their forecast results. Regions have different SARIMA specifications, resembling the underlying differences in tourism infrastructure and capacities available within each Region.

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