Surface water balance of the continental United States, 1963–1995: Regional evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

The land surface water balance of the continental United States is analyzed from 1963 to 1995 using a terrestrial biosphere model (IBIS), reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, a hydrologic routing model (HYDRA), and numerous observational data sets. Emphasis is placed on evaluating the performance of IBIS and the reanalysis, particularly over the central United States. IBIS is forced with daily climatic inputs from NCEP; an additional simulation is performed using observed precipitation. The NCEP reanalysis is found to have excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration over the central United States (particularly in the summertime), an exaggerated seasonal cycle of runoff, and low snow depths. The net surface water balance exhibits a dry bias that is corrected by nudging soil moisture toward climatology. Unfortunately, this correction term is large and appears to have a detrimental impact on other water balance components (particularly runoff). Fields that are reasonably well simulated in the reanalysis include fall and winter precipitation over the central United States, soil moisture in Illinois, and interannual variations in runoff. Results from the IBIS simulations show generally better agreement with observations than the NCEP reanalysis but continue to have nontrivial errors in certain fields. Over the central United States, these discrepancies include high winter/spring evapotranspiration (1 mm d−1 too high), low snow depth, and weak spring runoff (30–50% too low). The errors are at least partially caused by underestimated cloud cover and early spring green-up. A spatial analysis of the U.S. water balance reveals that some of the strongest seasonal and interannual variations in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture occur over the central United States.

[1]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data , 2000 .

[2]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure , 2000 .

[3]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  Modeling terrestrial hydrological systems at the continental scale : Testing the accuracy of an atmospheric GCM , 2000 .

[4]  J. Foley,et al.  Combined Effects of Deforestation and Doubled Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on the Climate of Amazonia , 2000 .

[5]  D. Pollard,et al.  CO2, climate, and vegetation feedbacks at the Last Glacial Maximum , 1999 .

[6]  N. Ramankutty,et al.  Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992 , 1999 .

[7]  M. Kanamitsu,et al.  Surface water characteristics in NCEP global spectral model and reanalysis , 1999 .

[8]  A. Betts,et al.  Basin‐scale surface water and energy budgets for the Mississippi from the ECMWF reanalysis , 1999 .

[9]  C. Delire,et al.  Evaluating the performance of a land Surface / ecosystem model with biophysical measurements from contrasting environments , 1999 .

[10]  Randal D. Koster,et al.  A Simple Framework for Examining the Interannual Variability of Land Surface Moisture Fluxes , 1999 .

[11]  Raymond G. Najjar,et al.  The water balance of the Susquehanna River Basin and its response to climate change , 1999 .

[12]  E. Eltahir,et al.  On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois , 1999 .

[13]  R. Arritt,et al.  Simulation of potential impacts of man-made land use changes on U.S. summer climate under various synoptic regimes , 1999 .

[14]  R. Koster,et al.  The Offline Validation of Land Surface Models: Assessing Success at the Annual Timescale , 1999 .

[15]  Gregory J. McCabe,et al.  Explaining spatial variability in mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States , 1999 .

[16]  David Pollard,et al.  Potential high‐latitude vegetation feedbacks on CO2‐induced climate change , 1999 .

[17]  P. Jones,et al.  Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology , 1999 .

[18]  R. Higgins,et al.  Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime , 1999 .

[19]  R. E. Livezey,et al.  A Comparison of the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Precipitation and the GPCP Rain Gauge-Satellite Combined Dataset with Observational Error Considerations , 1998 .

[20]  Song-You Hong,et al.  Evaluation of land-surface interaction in ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis models over grassland (FIFE) and boreal forest (BOREAS) , 1998 .

[21]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  The Observed Mean Annual Cycle of Moisture Budgets over the Central United States (1973-92) , 1998 .

[22]  Elfatih A. B. Eltahir,et al.  Hydroclimatology of Illinois: A comparison of monthly evaporation estimates based on atmospheric water balance and soil water balance , 1998 .

[23]  Charles J Vörösmarty,et al.  Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: Possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling , 1998 .

[24]  Gary D. Bishop,et al.  A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in the northeast United States , 1998 .

[25]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  A linked global model of terrestrial hydrologic processes: Simulation of modern rivers, lakes, and wetlands , 1998 .

[26]  K. Steffen,et al.  A New Monthly Climatology of Global Radiation for the Arctic and Comparisons with NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and ISCCP-C2 Fields , 1998 .

[27]  Douglas A. Miller,et al.  A Conterminous United States Multilayer Soil Characteristics Dataset for Regional Climate and Hydrology Modeling , 1998 .

[28]  S. Ghan,et al.  Influence of Subgrid Variability on Surface Hydrology , 1997 .

[29]  Gordon B. Bonan,et al.  Effects of Land Use on the Climate of the United States , 1997 .

[30]  A. Belward,et al.  The IGBP-DIS global 1km land cover data set, DISCover: First results , 1997 .

[31]  B. Weare.  Comparison of NCEP–NCAR Cloud Radiative Forcing Reanalyses with Observations , 1997 .

[32]  W. Gutowski,et al.  Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in NCEP–NCAR Reanalyses: Comparison with River Discharge in the Central United States , 1997 .

[33]  Randal D. Koster,et al.  The Interplay between Transpiration and Runoff Formulations in Land Surface Schemes Used with Atmospheric Models , 1997 .

[34]  S. Running,et al.  A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability , 1997 .

[35]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes , 1996 .

[36]  M. Coe,et al.  Hydrologic budget of a land surface model: A global application , 1996 .

[37]  K. Mo,et al.  Large-Scale Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Evaluated in the NCEP/NCAR and the NASA/DAO Reanalyses , 1996 .

[38]  Song-You Hong,et al.  Comparison of NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis with 1987 FIFE Data , 1996 .

[39]  Huug van den Dool,et al.  Analysis of model-calculated soil moisture over the United States (1931-1993) and applications to long-range temperature forecasts , 1996 .

[40]  K. Mo,et al.  The moisture budget of the central United States in spring as evaluated in the NCEP/NCAR and the NASA/DAO reanalyses , 1996 .

[41]  K. Georgakakos,et al.  Large‐scale properties of simulated soil water variability , 1996 .

[42]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Application of a macroscale hydrologic model to estimate the water balance of the Arkansas-Red River Basin , 1996 .

[43]  G. J. Collatz,et al.  Comparison of Radiative and Physiological Effects of Doubled Atmospheric CO2 on Climate , 1996, Science.

[44]  J. Foley.  Numerical models of the terrestrial biosphere , 1995 .

[45]  D. Pollard,et al.  A Global Climate Model (GENESIS) with a Land-Surface Transfer Scheme (LSX). Part II: CO2 Sensitivity , 1995 .

[46]  R. Neilson.  A Model for Predicting Continental‐Scale Vegetation Distribution and Water Balance , 1995 .

[47]  Alain Pietroniro,et al.  A Land Cover-Based Snow Cover Representation for Distributed Hydrologic Models , 1995 .

[48]  D. Pollard,et al.  A Global Climate Model (GENESIS) with a Land-Surface Transfer Scheme (LSX). Part I: Present Climate Simulation. , 1995 .

[49]  S. Schubert,et al.  Climatology of the Simulated Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Its Contribution to the Continental Moisture Budget of the United States , 1995 .

[50]  R. Leuning.  A critical appraisal of a combined stomatal‐photosynthesis model for C3 plants , 1995 .

[51]  Gordon B. Bonan,et al.  Land-atmosphere CO2 exchange simulated by a land surface process model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model , 1995 .

[52]  J. Roads,et al.  Large-Scale Aspects of the United States Hydrologic Cycle , 1994 .

[53]  P. Milly.  Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance , 1994 .

[54]  M. Wigmosta,et al.  A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain , 1994 .

[55]  G. Russell,et al.  Continental-Scale River Flow in Climate Models , 1994 .

[56]  Scott A. Isard,et al.  A Soil Moisture Climatology of Illinois , 1994 .

[57]  K. Georgakakos,et al.  River Outflow of the Conterminous United States, 1939–1988 , 1993 .

[58]  M. Richman,et al.  Recent hydroclimatic fluctuations and their effects on water resources in Illinois , 1993 .

[59]  Danny Marks,et al.  Characterizing the distribution of observed precipitation and runoff over the continental United States , 1992 .

[60]  G. Russell,et al.  The impact of global warming on river runoff , 1992 .

[61]  G. Collatz,et al.  Coupled Photosynthesis-Stomatal Conductance Model for Leaves of C4 Plants , 1992 .

[62]  G. Collatz,et al.  Physiological and environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer , 1991 .

[63]  W. Rossow,et al.  ISCCP Cloud Data Products , 1991 .

[64]  John J. Magnuson,et al.  A network for long-term ecological research in the United States , 1990 .

[65]  T. Karl,et al.  The impact of decadal fluctuations in mean precipitation and temperature on runoff: A sensitivity study over the United States , 1989 .

[66]  J. T. Ball,et al.  AN ANALYSIS OF STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE , 1988 .

[67]  Peter H. Gleick,et al.  Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases , 1987 .

[68]  H. Pan,et al.  Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary-layer development , 1987 .

[69]  Iwan Supit,et al.  A simple method for generating daily rainfall data , 1986 .

[70]  J. Amthor,et al.  The role of maintenance respiration in plant growth , 1984 .

[71]  H. Pan,et al.  A two-layer model of soil hydrology , 1984 .

[72]  C. W. Richardson.  Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation , 1981 .