Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram

Abstract Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schroter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments.

[1]  W. Steffen,et al.  Science Plan and Implementation Strategy , 2006 .

[2]  E. Lambin,et al.  Proximate Causes and Underlying Driving Forces of Tropical Deforestation , 2002 .

[3]  W. Neil Adger,et al.  Institutional Adaptation to Environmental Risk under the Transition in Vietnam , 2000 .

[4]  D. Liverman Drought Impacts in Mexico: Climate, Agriculture, Technology, and Land Tenure in Sonora and Puebla , 1990 .

[5]  Robin M. Leichenko,et al.  Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization , 2000 .

[6]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[7]  R. Kasperson,et al.  A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[8]  S. Schneider,et al.  Adaptation: Sensitivity to Natural Variability, Agent Assumptions and Dynamic Climate Changes , 2000 .

[9]  S. Cutter Vulnerability to environmental hazards , 1996 .

[10]  N. Denzin,et al.  Handbook of Qualitative Research , 1994 .

[11]  Colin Polsky,et al.  Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach , 2005 .

[12]  N Oreskes,et al.  Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences , 1994, Science.

[13]  WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND PLANNING: Views of Community Water System Managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin 1 , 1999 .

[14]  E. Guba,et al.  Competing paradigms in qualitative research. , 1994 .

[15]  Harold Brookfield,et al.  Land degradation and society , 1988 .

[16]  T. Downing,et al.  Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity , 1994 .

[17]  Robert W. Kates,et al.  The Interaction of Climate and Society , 1985 .

[18]  W. Adger,et al.  Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change andFacilitating Adaptation , 2000 .

[19]  Lynn P. Nygaard,et al.  Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India , 2004 .

[20]  L. Gunderson SOUTH FLORIDA: THE REALITY OF CHANGE AND THE PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY: Managing surprising ecosystems in southern Florida , 2001 .

[21]  J. Eyles,et al.  Evaluating Qualitative Research in Social Geography: Establishing ‘Rigour’ in Interview Analysis , 1997 .

[22]  C. Polsky Putting Space and Time in Ricardian Climate Change Impact Studies: Agriculture in the U.S. Great Plains, 1969–1992 , 2004 .

[23]  Susan L. Cutter,et al.  The Vulnerability of Science and the Science of Vulnerability , 2003 .

[24]  William J. McConnell,et al.  Global Land Project , 2005 .

[25]  W. Adger,et al.  Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements , 1999 .

[26]  R. Kasperson,et al.  Sustainability Science , 2019, Critical Skills for Environmental Professionals.

[27]  T. Carter,et al.  IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations : part of the IPCC special report to the first session of the conference of the parties to the UN framework convention on climate change , 1994 .

[28]  Daanish Mustafa,et al.  Structural Causes of Vulnerability to Flood Hazard in , 1998 .

[29]  C. S. Holling Resilience of ecosystems: local surprise and global change. , 1985 .

[30]  G. Fischer,et al.  Land-use and land-cover change. Science/research plan , 1995 .

[31]  Christine L. Jocoy,et al.  Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[32]  Sven Wunder,et al.  Tropical forests: Regional paths of destruction and regeneration in the late 20th century , 2007 .

[33]  C. Folke,et al.  Navigating social–ecological systems: building resilience for complexity and change: Fikret Berkes, Johan Colding and Carl Folke (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2003. xxi + 393 pages. ISBN 0-521-81592-4 (hardback), £65 , 2004 .

[34]  Policy Division Our Common Journey:: A Transition Toward Sustainability , 1999 .

[35]  Robert B McMaster,et al.  Scale and Geographic Inquiry , 2004 .

[36]  Christine L. Jocoy,et al.  Why worry? Community water system managers’ perceptions of climate vulnerability , 2007 .

[37]  Martin L. Parry,et al.  Climate change: where should our research priorities be? , 2001 .

[38]  Kirstin Dow,et al.  The potential use of climate forecasts by community water system managers , 2006 .

[39]  W. Clark,et al.  Sustainable development of the biosphere , 1988 .

[40]  Samuel J. Ratick,et al.  Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storms: The Case of Revere, MA., USA , 1998 .

[41]  Brent Yarnal,et al.  Vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise: a case study of Cape May County, New Jersey, USA , 2002 .

[42]  A. Strauss,et al.  The discovery of grounded theory: strategies for qualitative research aldine de gruyter , 1968 .

[43]  Jon Norberg,et al.  Resilience Management in Social-ecological Systems: a Working Hypothesis for a Participatory Approach , 2002 .

[44]  M. Janssen,et al.  Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change , 2006 .

[45]  Richard J. T. Klein,et al.  The Science of Adaptation: A Framework for Assessment , 1999 .

[46]  B. Glaser Basics of Grounded Theory Analysis: Emergence Vs. Forcing , 1992 .

[47]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  A portfolio approach to analyzing complex human-environment interactions:Institutions and land change , 2006 .

[48]  Jesse H. Ausubel,et al.  Climate impact assessment : studies of the interaction of climate and society , 1986 .

[49]  W. Clark,et al.  Sustainability science: The emerging research program , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[50]  C. S. Holling Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[51]  W. Adger,et al.  The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications f , 2005 .

[52]  Richard J.T. Klein,et al.  Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological Issues , 1999 .

[53]  D. Wilhite Drought and Water Crises : Science, Technology, and Management Issues , 2005 .

[54]  H. Geist,et al.  The Causes and Progression of Desertification , 2005 .

[55]  A. Misselhorn,et al.  What drives food insecurity in southern Africa? a meta-analysis of household economy studies , 2005 .

[56]  D. Austin,et al.  Processes of adaptation to climate variability: a case study from the US Southwest , 2002 .

[57]  David R. Foster,et al.  Integrated land-change science and tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatán : final frontiers , 2004 .

[58]  Thomas E. Downing,et al.  Vulnerability to hunger in Africa , 1991 .

[59]  Robert J. Nicholls,et al.  Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied? , 1999 .

[60]  B. Smit,et al.  Human adaptation to climatic variability and change , 1997 .

[61]  Jerry T. Mitchell,et al.  Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina , 2000 .

[62]  Russell Jones,et al.  RELATIVE REGIONAL VULNERABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGE 1 , 1999 .

[63]  Anselm L. Strauss,et al.  Basics of qualitative research : techniques and procedures for developing grounded theory , 1998 .