THE ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS OF THE FUTURE PROSPECT IS NOT HOPELESS WILL BE MORE AND WORSE BUT THE

On the global scene, but particularly in modern societies, we are inevitably faced with more and worse disasters in the future. There will be both quantative and qualitative increases in the negative direction. This stems from two major ongoing trendsindustrialization and urbanization---inherent in the very structure of modern social life. The first trend almost assures that disaster agents and occasions will increase. The second trend is raising the risks and vulnerabilities of impacted populations and societies. To recognize these upcoming transmutations in disasters is not to argue that nothing can be done by way of disaster planning. In fact, our view is just the opposite; a clear recognition of the reality of what is very likely to occur in the 21st Century will allow more effective and efficient disaster planning than we have had up to now.