PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2004 WINTER SIMULATION CONFERENCE

“Spreadsheet simulation” refers to the use of a spreadsheet as a platform for representing simulation models and performing simulation experiments. This tutorial explains the reasons for using this platform for simulation, discusses why this is frequently an efficient way to build simulation models and execute them, describes how to setup a spreadsheet simulation, and finally examines some limitations on the use of spreadsheets for simulation.

[1]  William Feller,et al.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1951 .

[2]  L. Schmetterer Zeitschrift fur Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete. , 1963 .

[3]  Paul A. Strassmann,et al.  Stochastic Decision Trees for the Analysis of Investment Decisions , 1965 .

[4]  I. Sobol On the distribution of points in a cube and the approximate evaluation of integrals , 1967 .

[5]  P. C. Gehlen,et al.  Computer experiments. , 1972, Science.

[6]  Mordecai Avriel,et al.  Nonlinear programming , 1976 .

[7]  Edward J. Dudewicz,et al.  Procedures for Fixed-Width Interval Estimation of the Largest Normal Mean , 1976 .

[8]  J. D. T. Oliveira,et al.  The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics , 1979 .

[9]  J. King Machine-component grouping in production flow analysis: an approach using a rank order clustering algorithm , 1980 .

[10]  R. G. Vickson,et al.  Choosing the Job Sequence and Processing Times to Minimize Total Processing Plus Flow Cost on a Single Machine , 1980, Oper. Res..

[11]  Bruce W. Schmeiser,et al.  Random variate generation , 1981, WSC '81.

[12]  K. R. Baker,et al.  A bicriterion approach to time/cost trade-offs in sequencing , 1982 .

[13]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[14]  Charles T. Jahren,et al.  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , 1983 .

[15]  Roland W. Lewis,et al.  Civil Engineering Systems Analysis and Design , 1983 .

[16]  W. Gautschi,et al.  An algorithm for simultaneous orthogonal transformation of several positive definite symmetric matrices to nearly diagonal form , 1986 .

[17]  H. Niederreiter Point sets and sequences with small discrepancy , 1987 .

[18]  Pius J. Egbelu,et al.  Determination of the total number of vehicles in an AGV-based material transport system , 1987 .

[19]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning , 1988 .

[20]  Eric R. Zieyel Operations research : applications and algorithms , 1988 .

[21]  Aimo A. Törn,et al.  Global Optimization , 1999, Science.

[22]  J. Hull Options, futures, and other derivative securities , 1989 .

[23]  P. Whittle Risk-Sensitive Optimal Control , 1990 .

[24]  A. Kemna,et al.  A pricing method for options based on average asset values , 1990 .

[25]  E. Seneta,et al.  The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns , 1990 .

[26]  Wallace J. Hopp,et al.  Estimating variance of output from cyclic exponential queueing systems , 1990, Queueing Syst. Theory Appl..

[27]  D. Madan,et al.  1option Pricing with V. G. Martingale Components , 1991 .

[28]  Raj Jain,et al.  The art of computer systems performance analysis - techniques for experimental design, measurement, simulation, and modeling , 1991, Wiley professional computing.

[29]  J. Speyer,et al.  Optimal stochastic estimation with exponential cost criteria , 1992, [1992] Proceedings of the 31st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.

[30]  Lee W. Schruben,et al.  Structural and behavioral equivalence of simulation models , 1992, TOMC.

[31]  Jack R. Meredith,et al.  An Empirically‐based Simulation Study of Functional versus Cellular Layouts with Operations Overlapping , 1993 .

[32]  Peter D. Welch,et al.  Response surface methodology and its application in simulation , 1993, WSC '93.

[33]  R. E. Winston Rapid method for capital investment decisions , 1993 .

[34]  Steve Bankes,et al.  Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis , 1993, Oper. Res..

[35]  Yash P. Gupta,et al.  Applications of neural networks in manufacturing management systems , 1994 .

[36]  Nancy A. Lynch,et al.  Distributed Algorithms , 1994, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[37]  I. Sloan Lattice Methods for Multiple Integration , 1994 .

[38]  Russell R. Barton,et al.  Metamodeling: a state of the art review , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[39]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  FITTING BETA DISTRIBUTIONS BASED ON SAMPLE DATA , 1994 .

[40]  S.,et al.  Risk-Sensitive Control and Dynamic Games for Partially Observed Discrete-Time Nonlinear Systems , 1994 .

[41]  Gajanana Nadoli,et al.  Simulation in automated material handling systems design for semiconductor manufacturing , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[42]  H. Vincent Poor,et al.  An Introduction to Signal Detection and Estimation , 1994, Springer Texts in Electrical Engineering.

[43]  Nicholas R. Jennings,et al.  Agent Theories, Architectures, and Languages: A Survey , 1995, ECAI Workshop on Agent Theories, Architectures, and Languages.

[44]  Wayne L. Winston Simulation Modeling Using Risk , 1995 .

[45]  L. Dai Convergence properties of ordinal comparison in the simulation of discrete event dynamic systems , 1995 .

[46]  John B. Moore,et al.  Risk-sensitive filtering and smoothing for hidden Markov models , 1995 .

[47]  Douglas C. Montgomery,et al.  Response Surface Methodology: Process and Product Optimization Using Designed Experiments , 1995 .

[48]  Hans Wackernagel,et al.  Multivariate Geostatistics: An Introduction with Applications , 1996 .

[49]  A. Owen Randomly Permuted (t,m,s)-Nets and (t, s)-Sequences , 1995 .

[50]  Ingolf Ståhl New Product Development: When Discrete Simulation is Preferable to System Dynamics , 1995, EUROSIM.

[51]  Jeff R. Wright,et al.  Civil And Environmental Systems Engineering , 1996 .

[52]  Gordon B. Hazen,et al.  Recursive Utility for Stochastic Trees , 1996, Oper. Res..

[53]  Margaret L. Brandeau,et al.  Stochastic Modeling for Automated Material Handling System Design and Control , 1996, Transp. Sci..

[54]  A. Owen Scrambled net variance for integrals of smooth functions , 1997 .

[55]  Ronald L. Wasserstein,et al.  Monte Carlo: Concepts, Algorithms, and Applications , 1997 .

[56]  D. Dennis,et al.  SDO : A Statistical Method for Global Optimization , 1997 .

[57]  A. Owen,et al.  Valuation of mortgage-backed securities using Brownian bridges to reduce effective dimension , 1997 .

[58]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Validation of Simulation Models , 1997 .

[59]  Stephen E. Chick,et al.  Bayesian analysis for simulation input and output , 1997, WSC '97.

[60]  Amir Dembo,et al.  Large Deviations Techniques and Applications , 1998 .

[61]  Kenny Q. Ye Orthogonal Column Latin Hypercubes and Their Application in Computer Experiments , 1998 .

[62]  Fred J. Hickernell,et al.  A generalized discrepancy and quadrature error bound , 1998, Math. Comput..

[63]  Arthur B. Markman,et al.  Knowledge Representation , 1998 .

[64]  Art B. Owen,et al.  Latin supercube sampling for very high-dimensional simulations , 1998, TOMC.

[65]  William J. Morokoff Generating Quasi-Random Paths for Stochastic Processes , 1998, SIAM Rev..

[66]  John W. Stewart,et al.  BGP4 : inter-domain routing in the Internet , 1998 .

[67]  P. Carr,et al.  The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing , 1998 .

[68]  Russell R. Barton,et al.  Simulation metamodels , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[69]  Gerald T. Mackulak,et al.  Effective simulation model reuse: a case study for AMHS modeling , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[70]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  A framework for applying simulation in construction , 1998 .

[71]  Joseph Sarkis,et al.  A review and analysis of comparative performance studies on functional and cellular manufacturing layouts , 1998 .

[72]  R. Ackoff Ackoff's Best: His Classic Writings on Management , 1999 .

[73]  K. A. Brown,et al.  A socio-technical systems approach to cell design: case study and analysis , 1999 .

[74]  G. Bedny,et al.  Theory of Activity and Situation Awareness , 1999 .

[75]  B. Fox Strategies for Quasi-Monte Carlo , 1999, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science.

[76]  Judith S. Dahmann,et al.  A reusable architecture for simulations , 1999, CACM.

[77]  Thomas A. Grossman Teachers' Forum: Spreadsheet Modeling and Simulation Improves Understanding of Queues , 1999, Interfaces.

[78]  Francis T. Hartman Don't Park Your Brain Outside: A Practical Guide to Improving Shareholder Value With Smart Management , 1999 .

[79]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[80]  W. David Kelton,et al.  Designing simulation experiments , 1999, WSC '99.

[81]  P. L’Ecuyer,et al.  Variance Reduction via Lattice Rules , 1999 .

[82]  Robert L. K. Tiong,et al.  NPV-at-Risk Method in Infrastructure Project Investment Evaluation , 2000 .

[83]  Stephen E. Chick,et al.  Bayesian methods for simulation , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[84]  David R. Karger,et al.  A scalable location service for geographic ad hoc routing , 2000, MobiCom '00.

[85]  Fred W. Glover,et al.  Integrating optimization and simulation: research and practice , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[86]  Ryszard Tadeusiewicz,et al.  Project Cost Analysis For Niepolomice MunicipalSolid Waste Using The Monte Carlo Simulation , 2000 .

[87]  Chun-Hung Chen,et al.  Simulation Budget Allocation for Further Enhancing the Efficiency of Ordinal Optimization , 2000, Discret. Event Dyn. Syst..

[88]  Gordon B. Hazen,et al.  Preference Factoring for Stochastic Trees , 2000 .

[89]  Charles R. Standridge,et al.  Teaching simulation using case studies , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[90]  H. T. Kung,et al.  Geographic routing for wireless networks , 2000 .

[91]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Simphony-an integrated environment for construction simulation , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[92]  Richard J. Beckman,et al.  A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output From a Computer Code , 2000, Technometrics.

[93]  David M. Ferrin,et al.  Electronic workflow for transaction-based work cells in a financial services firm , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[94]  Lee W. Schruben,et al.  A survey of simulation optimization techniques and procedures , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[95]  Fred J. Hickernell,et al.  The Price of Pessimism for Multidimensional Quadrature , 2001, J. Complex..

[96]  B. J. A. Mertens,et al.  Downdating: Interdisciplinary Research Between Statistics and Computing , 2001 .

[97]  Francis A. Longstaff,et al.  Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach , 2001 .

[98]  Gerald J. Lieberman,et al.  Introduction to operation research. , 2001 .

[99]  John R. Schuyler,et al.  Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects , 2001 .

[100]  Kai Virtanen,et al.  A Simulation Model for Military Aircraft Maintenance and Availability , 2001 .

[101]  Mary C. Court A Case Study on the Impact of Web-based Technology in a Simulation Analysis Course , 2001, Simul..

[102]  Lixin Gao On inferring autonomous system relationships in the internet , 2001, TNET.

[103]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Special purpose simulation templates for tunnel construction operations , 2001 .

[104]  Julie L. Swann,et al.  Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System When the Number of Alternatives is Large , 2001, Oper. Res..

[105]  Dietmar P. F. Möller Simulation in Education and Education in Simulation , 2001, Simul..

[106]  Gerald T. Mackulak,et al.  A simulation-based experiment for comparing AMHS performance in a semiconductor fabrication facility , 2001 .

[107]  Larry Weatherford,et al.  Decision Modeling with Microsoft Excel , 2001 .

[108]  Uwe Küchler,et al.  Coherent risk measures and good-deal bounds , 2001, Finance Stochastics.

[109]  David M. Ferrin,et al.  Achieving higher levels of CMMI maturity using simulation , 2002, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference.

[110]  Gerald T. Mackulak,et al.  New approaches for simulation of wafer fabrication: the use of control variates and calibration metrics , 2002, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference.

[111]  Gerald T. Mackulak,et al.  D-Optimal Sequential Experiments for Generating a Simulation-Based Cycle Time-Throughput Curve , 2002, Oper. Res..

[112]  N. Webber,et al.  Valuing path dependent options in the variance-gamma model by Monte Carlo with a gamma bridge , 2002 .

[113]  Pierre L'Ecuyer,et al.  Recent Advances in Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods , 2002 .

[114]  M. Sasena,et al.  Exploration of Metamodeling Sampling Criteria for Constrained Global Optimization , 2002 .

[115]  Roland Bless,et al.  Using Realistic Internet Topology Data for Large Scale Network Simulations in OMNeT , 2002 .

[116]  Ian R. Petersen,et al.  Robustness and risk-sensitive filtering , 2002, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control..

[117]  T. Simpson,et al.  Computationally Inexpensive Metamodel Assessment Strategies , 2002 .

[118]  F. J. Hickernell Obtaining O( N - 2+∈ ) Convergence for Lattice Quadrature Rules , 2002 .

[119]  Richard E. Nance,et al.  Perspectives on the Evolution of Simulation , 2002, Oper. Res..

[120]  Steven I. Marcus,et al.  Estimation of hidden markov models: risk-sensitive filter banks and qualitative analysis of their sample paths , 2002, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control..

[121]  Søren Nymand Lophaven,et al.  DACE - A Matlab Kriging Toolbox, Version 2.0 , 2002 .

[122]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Unified Modeling Methodology for Construction Simulation , 2002 .

[123]  Ken Seng Tan,et al.  Enhanced quasi-Monte Carlo methods with dimension reduction , 2002, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference.

[124]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Estimating the cost of capital projects: an empirical study of accuracy levels for municipal government projects , 2002 .

[125]  J. B. Keller,et al.  American options on assets with dividends near expiry , 2002 .

[126]  Ruichen Jin,et al.  On Sequential Sampling for Global Metamodeling in Engineering Design , 2002, DAC 2002.

[127]  J. M. Szymanski,et al.  Simulating six sigma improvement ideas for a hospital emergency department , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 2003..

[128]  S. Mahapatra,et al.  Pairing emergency severity index5-level triage data with computer aided system design to improve emergency department access and throughput , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 2003..

[129]  Sean Convery,et al.  An Attack Tree for the Border Gateway Protocol , 2003 .

[130]  Athanassios N. Avramidis,et al.  Efficient simulation of gamma and variance-gamma processes , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 2003..

[131]  Timothy W. Simpson,et al.  Analysis of support vector regression for approximation of complex engineering analyses , 2003, DAC 2003.

[132]  Abhijit Gosavi,et al.  Simulation-Based Optimization: Parametric Optimization Techniques and Reinforcement Learning , 2003 .

[133]  Pandu R. Tadikamalla,et al.  Applied Simulation Modeling , 2003 .

[134]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Kriging for interpolation in random simulation , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[135]  Art B. Owen,et al.  Variance with alternative scramblings of digital nets , 2003, TOMC.

[136]  Shu Tezuka,et al.  I-binomial scrambling of digital nets and sequences , 2003, J. Complex..

[137]  Barry L. Nelson,et al.  Selecting the best system: theory and methods , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 2003..

[138]  Lee W. Schruben,et al.  A queueing network approximation of semiconductor automated material handling systems: how much information do we really need? , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[139]  Martin B. Haugh,et al.  Pricing American Options: A Duality Approach , 2001, Oper. Res..

[140]  M. C. Court The Impact of Using Excel Macros for Teaching Simulation Input and Output Analysis , 2004 .

[141]  David M. Ferrin,et al.  Analyzing incentives and scheduling in a major metropolitan hospital operating room through simulation , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[142]  David Sinreich,et al.  A simple and intuitive simulation tool for analyzing emergency department operations , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[143]  John W. Fowler,et al.  Analysis of a customer demand driven semiconductor supply chain in a distributed simulation test bed , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[144]  Ivan Stojmenovic,et al.  Position Based Routing Algorithms for Ad Hoc Networks: A Taxonomy , 2004 .

[145]  Peter Bosch,et al.  Autonomous predictive-adaptive simulation for operations support , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[146]  Matthew P. J. Pepper,et al.  A Web-based virtual factory and simulator for industrial statistics , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[147]  Jeremy Staum,et al.  Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing for Good Deal Bounds , 2004 .

[148]  Loren Paul Rees,et al.  A sequential-design metamodeling strategy for simulation optimization , 2004, Comput. Oper. Res..

[149]  Richard G. Born From emergency departments to cottage cheese to fire departments: learning simulation experimentation through WebGPSS , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[150]  Amr Arisha,et al.  Intelligent simulation-based lot scheduling of photolithography toolsets in a wafer fabrication facility , 2004 .

[151]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations , 2004 .

[152]  Constantinos Dovrolis,et al.  Beware of BGP attacks , 2004, CCRV.

[153]  Multi-Hypothesis Structures, Taxonomies and Recognition of Tactical Elements for Combat Identification Fusion , 2004 .

[154]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Application-driven sequential designs for simulation experiments: Kriging metamodelling , 2004, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[155]  Fred J. Hickernell,et al.  Optimal quadrature for Haar wavelet spaces , 2004, Math. Comput..

[156]  Demetri Petrides,et al.  The role of process simulation and scheduling tools in the development and manufacturing of biopharmaceuticals , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[157]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  State-of-the-Art Review: A User's Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments , 2005, INFORMS J. Comput..

[158]  Statistical selection of the best system , 2001, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[159]  A. Owen,et al.  Control variates for quasi-Monte Carlo , 2005 .

[160]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  An Overview of the Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Sensitivity Analysis , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[161]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Robustness of Kriging when interpolating in random simulation with heterogeneous variances: Some experiments , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[162]  H. Keselman,et al.  Multiple Comparison Procedures , 2005 .

[163]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Theory of Rational Option Pricing , 2015, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[164]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  The correct Kriging variance estimated by bootstrapping , 2006, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[165]  Per M. Gustavsson,et al.  A System Theoretical Approach to Situation Awareness, A Holistic View of Purposeful Elements , 2006, 2006 9th International Conference on Information Fusion.