Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty.Synthesis and applications. Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

[1]  Matthew J Ferrari,et al.  Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter. , 2016, Epidemics.

[2]  Stephen M. Redpath,et al.  Using Decision Modeling with Stakeholders to Reduce Human–Wildlife Conflict: a Raptor–Grouse Case Study , 2004 .

[3]  Lior Rokach,et al.  Data Mining with Decision Trees - Theory and Applications , 2007, Series in Machine Perception and Artificial Intelligence.

[4]  Michael J. Tildesley,et al.  Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology , 2014, PLoS biology.

[5]  Graeme Caughley,et al.  Wildlife Ecology and Management , 1994 .

[6]  Damaris Zurell,et al.  The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers , 2010 .

[7]  R. Hilborn,et al.  The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data , 1997 .

[8]  E. Milner‐Gulland,et al.  Conservation: Reproductive collapse in saiga antelope harems , 2003, Nature.

[9]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  Counting the books while the library burns: why conservation monitoring programs need a plan for action , 2013 .

[10]  N. Bunnefeld,et al.  Management strategy evaluation: a powerful tool for conservation? , 2011, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[11]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[12]  V. Covello,et al.  Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks , 1989 .

[13]  Fumie Yokota,et al.  Value of Information Literature Analysis: A Review of Applications in Health Risk Management , 2004, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[14]  Richard T. Roush,et al.  ACTIVE ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN INSECT PEST AND WEED CONTROL: INTERVENTION WITH A PLAN FOR LEARNING , 2002 .

[15]  André E. Punt,et al.  Experiences in the evaluation and implementation of management procedures , 1999 .

[16]  D. Thompson,et al.  An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts , 2011 .

[17]  K Shea,et al.  Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. , 1998, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[18]  Prue F. E. Addison,et al.  Practical solutions for making models indispensable in conservation decision‐making , 2013 .

[19]  R. W. Burn,et al.  Making Robust Policy Decisions Using Global Biodiversity Indicators , 2012, PloS one.

[20]  M. Conroy,et al.  Analysis and Management of Animal Populations , 2002 .

[21]  Eve McDonald-Madden,et al.  Uncertainty and adaptive management for biodiversity conservation , 2011 .

[22]  Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita,et al.  When do we need more data? A primer on calculating the value of information for applied ecologists , 2015 .

[23]  W. Sutherland,et al.  Understanding and managing conservation conflicts. , 2013, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[24]  Bet-hedging applications for conservation , 2002, Journal of Biosciences.

[25]  Yakov Ben-Haim,et al.  What Makes a Good Decision? Robust Satisficing as a Normative Standard of Rational Decision Making , 2011 .

[26]  Larry B. Crowder,et al.  A Stage‐Based Population Model for Loggerhead Sea Turtles and Implications for Conservation , 1987 .

[27]  E. Milner‐Gulland,et al.  Second-guessing uncertainty: Scenario planning for management of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery , 2015 .

[28]  Helen M. Regan,et al.  ROBUST DECISION‐MAKING UNDER SEVERE UNCERTAINTY FOR CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT , 2005 .

[29]  Helen M. Regan,et al.  A TAXONOMY AND TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY , 2002 .

[30]  T. Clutton‐Brock,et al.  Sex differences and data quality as determinants of income from hunting red deer Cervus elaphus , 2004, Wildlife Biology.

[31]  J. Andrew Royle,et al.  Effects of Turtle Excluder Devices (TEDs) on Loggerhead Sea Turtle Strandings with Implications for Conservation , 1995 .

[32]  Brittany J. Teller,et al.  Seed release in a changing climate: initiation of movement increases spread of an invasive species under simulated climate warming , 2016 .

[33]  Sarah J. Converse,et al.  Special Issue Article: Adaptive management for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain world Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program , 2011 .

[34]  Hugh P. Possingham,et al.  Competing harvesting strategies in a simulated population under uncertainty , 2001 .

[35]  E. Milner‐Gulland,et al.  Reconstructing the observation process to correct for changing detection probability of a critically endangered species , 2009 .

[36]  James E. M. Watson,et al.  Formulating Smart Commitments on Biodiversity: Lessons from the Aichi Targets , 2016 .

[37]  Jason F. Shogren,et al.  Managing invasive species: Rules of thumb for rapid assessment , 2005 .

[38]  Byron K. Williams,et al.  Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife , 2001, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

[39]  Hugh P. Possingham,et al.  Minimizing the cost of environmental management decisions by optimizing statistical thresholds , 2004 .

[40]  Katriona Shea,et al.  Optimal management strategies to control local population growth or population spread may not be the same. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[41]  Byron K. Williams,et al.  Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management , 2012 .