Fuzzy short-term electric load forecasting

Load forecasting is necessary for economic generation of power, economic allocation between plants (unit commitment scheduling), maintenance scheduling, and for system security such as peak load shaving by power interchange with interconnected utilities. In this paper a fuzzy linear regression model for summer and winter seasons is developed. The estimation fuzzy problem for the model is turned out to linear optimization problem, fuzzy linear regression, and is solved using the linear programming based simplex method. Having obtained the fuzzy parameters, the fuzzy load for twenty-four hour ahead is predicted. Results of predication of 24 h load ahead for a utility company are presented. It has been found using such fuzzy model; a reliable operation for the electric power system could be obtained.

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