The Effect of an Initial Budget and Schedule Goal on Software Project Escalation

Software project escalation is a costly problem that leads to significant financial losses. Prior research suggests that setting a publicly announced limit on resources can make individuals less willing to escalate their commitment to a failing course of action. However, the relationship between initial budget and schedule goals and software project escalation remains unexplored. Drawing on goal setting theory as well as sunk cost and mental budgeting perspectives, we explore the effect of goal difficulty and goal specificity on software project escalation. The findings from a laboratory experiment with 349 information technology professionals suggest that both very difficult and very specific goals for budget and schedule can limit software project escalation. Further, the level of commitment to a budget and schedule goal directly affects software project escalation and also interacts with goal difficulty and goal specificity to affect software project escalation. This study makes a theoretical contribution to the existing body of knowledge on software project management by establishing a connection between goal setting theory and software project escalation. The study also contributes to practice by highlighting the potential negative consequences that can result from the nature of initial budget and schedule goals that are established at the outset of a project.

[1]  E. A. Locke,et al.  Separating the effects of goal specificity from goal level , 1989 .

[2]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  Software development cost estimation approaches — A survey , 2000, Ann. Softw. Eng..

[3]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  A Systematic Review of Software Development Cost Estimation Studies , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[4]  D. G. Morrison Purchase Intentions and Purchase Behavior , 1979 .

[5]  Jen-Her Wu,et al.  What drives mobile commerce?: An empirical evaluation of the revised technology acceptance model , 2005, Inf. Manag..

[6]  Shaul Fox,et al.  Escalation Behavior as a Specific Case of Goal-Directed Activity: A Persistence Paradigm , 2002 .

[7]  Mark Keil,et al.  Turning Around Troubled Software Projects: An Exploratory Study of the Deescalation of Commitment to Failing Courses of Action , 1999, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[8]  Hun-Tong Tan,et al.  Financial Budgets and Escalation Effects , 2002 .

[9]  E. A. Locke,et al.  Goal Setting: A Motivational Technique That Works! , 1984 .

[10]  E. A. Locke Goal theory vs. control theory: Contrasting approaches to understanding work motivation , 1991 .

[11]  Fred P. Brooks,et al.  The Mythical Man-Month , 1975, Reliable Software.

[12]  Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid,et al.  Investigating the cost/schedule trade-off in software development , 1990, IEEE Software.

[13]  A. Bandura,et al.  Self-evaluative and self-efficacy mechanisms governing the motivational effects of goal systems. , 1983 .

[14]  Daniel Robey,et al.  Perceptions of Conflict and Success in Information Systems Development Projects , 1993, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[15]  Timo Saarinen,et al.  Understanding Runaway Information Technology Projects: Results from an International Research Program Based on Escalation Theory , 1994, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[16]  C. Dweck,et al.  A social-cognitive approach to motivation and personality , 1988 .

[17]  Kin Fai Ellick Wong,et al.  The role of anticipated regret in escalation of commitment. , 2007, The Journal of applied psychology.

[18]  Mark Keil,et al.  Why Software Projects Escalate: An Empirical Analysis and Test of Four Theoretical Models , 2000, MIS Q..

[19]  Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid,et al.  On the utility of historical project statistics for cost and schedule estimation: Results from a simulation-based case study , 1990, J. Syst. Softw..

[20]  Jr. Frederick P. Brooks,et al.  The mythical man-month (anniversary ed.) , 1995 .

[21]  Roger Atkinson,et al.  Project management: cost, time and quality, two best guesses and a phenomenon, its time to accept other success criteria , 1999 .

[22]  Qing Hu,et al.  Software Cost Estimation Using Economic Production Models , 1998, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[23]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking , 1993 .

[24]  E. A. Locke,et al.  Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation. A 35-year odyssey. , 2002, The American psychologist.

[25]  R. Thaler Mental accounting matters , 1999 .

[26]  M. Keil,et al.  The effects of sunk cost and project completion on information technology project escalation , 1995 .

[27]  Teck-Hua Ho,et al.  New product development: the performance and time-to-market tradeoff , 1996 .

[28]  J. Hollenbeck,et al.  Goal commitment and the goal-setting process: Problems, prospects, and proposals for future research. , 1987 .

[29]  H. Arkes,et al.  The Psychology of Sunk Cost , 1985 .

[30]  Joel Brockner,et al.  Factors affecting withdrawal from an escalating conflict: Quitting before it's too late , 1979 .

[31]  Barry M. Staw,et al.  Organizational decision making: The escalation of commitment: An update and appraisal , 1996 .

[32]  Mark Keil,et al.  Software project risks and their effect on outcomes , 2004, CACM.

[33]  D. Wood Self-theories: Their Role in Motivation, Personality and Development. By Carol S. Dweck. Psychology Press, Hove, 1999. pp. 195. £29.95 (hb). , 2000 .

[34]  S. Thompson Social Learning Theory , 2008 .

[35]  Bradley J. Alge,et al.  Goal commitment and the goal-setting process: conceptual clarification and empirical synthesis. , 1999, The Journal of applied psychology.

[36]  Kishore Sengupta,et al.  The Impact of Goals On Software Project Management: An Experimental Investigation , 1999, MIS Q..

[37]  Thiagarajan Ravichandran,et al.  Total Quality Management in Information Systems Development: Key Constructs and Relationships , 1999, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[38]  Stephanie Newport,et al.  Effects of absolute and relative sunk costs on the decision to persist with a course of action , 1991 .

[39]  Glen Whyte,et al.  Escalating Commitment to a Course of Action: A Reinterpretation , 1986 .

[40]  Jacob Cohen,et al.  Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences , 1979 .

[41]  A. C. Rogers,et al.  De-escalation of commitment in oil exploration : when sunk costs and negative feedback coincide , 1990 .

[42]  Kurt R. Linberg Software developer perceptions about software project failure: a case study , 1999, J. Syst. Softw..

[43]  Philip M. Johnson,et al.  Empirically Guided Software Effort Guesstimation , 2000, IEEE Softw..

[44]  Chip Heath,et al.  Escalation and De-escalation of Commitment in Response to Sunk Costs: The Role of Budgeting in Mental Accounting , 1995 .

[45]  Edwin A. Locke,et al.  The Determinants of Goal Commitment , 1988 .

[46]  Richard H. Thaler,et al.  Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice , 1985, Mark. Sci..

[47]  H. Garland Throwing Good Money After Bad: The Effect of Sunk Costs on the Decision to Escalate Commitment to an Ongoing Project , 1990 .

[48]  Watts S. Humphrey,et al.  Characterizing the software process: a maturity framework , 1988, IEEE Software.

[49]  Donald E. Conlon,et al.  Too Close to Quit: The Role of Project Completion in Maintaining Commitment1 , 1998 .

[50]  Donald E. Conlon,et al.  The Role of Project Completion Information in Resource Allocation Decisions , 1993 .

[51]  Mark Keil,et al.  Pulling the Plug: Software Project Management and the Problem of Project Escalation , 1995, MIS Q..

[52]  Phillip G. Armour,et al.  Ten unmyths of project estimation , 2002, CACM.

[53]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  Theory-W Software Project Management: Principles and Examples , 1989, IEEE Trans. Software Eng..

[54]  Henry L. Tosi A Theory of Goal Setting and Task Performance , 1991 .

[55]  A. Teger,et al.  Too Much Invested to Quit , 1980 .

[56]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Opportunity costs and the framing of resource allocation decisions , 1986 .

[57]  Alexander K. Koch,et al.  Self-Regulation Through Goal Setting , 2011, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[58]  Henry Moon,et al.  Looking forward and looking back: integrating completion and sunk-cost effects within an escalation-of-commitment progress decision. , 2001, The Journal of applied psychology.

[59]  Mark Keil,et al.  Information Technology Project Escalation: A Process Model , 2008, Decis. Sci..

[60]  Michael T. Pich,et al.  Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos , 2002, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[61]  E. A. Locke,et al.  Goal setting and task performance: 1969–1980. , 1981 .

[62]  Gregory B. Northcraft,et al.  Dollars, Sense, and Sunk Costs: A Life Cycle Model of Resource Allocation Decisions , 1984 .

[63]  J. Mathieu,et al.  Goal Orientation in Organizational Research: A Conceptual and Empirical Foundation , 1996 .

[64]  P. Kidwell,et al.  The mythical man-month: Essays on software engineering , 1996, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing.

[65]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort , 2004, J. Syst. Softw..

[66]  G. Fitzsimons,et al.  The Mere-Measurement Effect: Why Does Measuring Intentions Change Actual Behavior? , 2004 .

[67]  Jaak Jurison,et al.  Software Project Management: The Manager's View , 1999, Commun. Assoc. Inf. Syst..

[68]  John R. Hollenbeck,et al.  The Assessment of Goal Commitment: A Measurement Model Meta-Analysis. , 2001, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[69]  Miriam Erez,et al.  Effect of goal acceptance on the relationship of goal difficulty to performance , 1984 .

[70]  R. Thaler Saving, Fungibility, and Mental Accounts , 1990 .

[71]  Michael G. Bowen The Escalation Phenomenon Reconsidered: Decision Dilemmas or Decision Errors? , 1987 .

[72]  Bernard C. Y. Tan,et al.  A Cross-Cultural Study on Escalation of Commitment Behavior in Software Projects , 2000, MIS Q..

[73]  Tridas Mukhopadhyay,et al.  Software Processes and Project Performance , 1995, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..