Causes and consequences of variability in the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Established conceptual models of the initiation and progression of spring phytoplankton blooms are reconsidered in light of recent observations. We use biological simulation modelling as a tool for the analysis of spring plankton blooms in shallow, coastal waters in temperate latitudes of the North Atlantic. The model shows that interannual variability in the timing of bloom initiation arises from year-to-year differences in incident irradiation, as determined by weather (cloudiness). This variability in timing results in some years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water temperatures near 0°C. Model results suggest that due to low temperature inhibition of heterotrophic consumption, more fresh organic material is delivered to the benthos in these cold-water blooms than when the bloom occurs in waters only 3°C warmer. Thus we suggest that variable bloom timing can be important to the trophodynamic fate of bloom products. We suggest that variability in timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in offshore and open ocean waters is also related to weather, through controls on the light field and wind mixing. Our analyses of wind-driven vertical mixing demonstrate such blooms can begin following the winter period of deep convection, and prior to the vernal development of stratification, provided that wind speed is below a certain, predictable threshold, which we estimate. In such cases, there may be several spring bloom pulses, each interrupted by self-shading light limitation or vertical mixing events. Eventually the seasonal thermocline develops and nutrient exhaustion curtails bloom production. This means that the spring phytoplankton bloom in offshore and open ocean areas may be significantly more productive, result in more export production, and be more important to the carbon cycle, than has been previously assumed. Furthermore, these features of temperate marine planktonic ecosystems are not only sensitive to annual variations in weather, but also any trends that might result from greenhouse warming or other factors that affect the climate system.

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