Manufacturing and Growth in the Longer Term:An Economic Perspective

This IMS Vision 2020 Forum is intended to focus on the key issues shaping manufacturing in the early decades of the new century, having regard to emerging technological and socio-economic trends. My task in this paper is to provide some economic perspective to this agenda, with special reference to recent economic theorising about growth and to the continuing impact of technological change on the global economic and social structure. In doing so I am conscious of the diversity of possible approaches to this agenda, and in particular to the discussion of similar issues in this place three years ago, which gave rise to the important National Research Council publication Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (National Research Council 1998). Thus this paper can be seen only as one limited and personal perspective.

[1]  David Cass,et al.  Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation , 1965 .

[2]  F. Ramsey,et al.  THE MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF SAVING , 1928 .

[3]  A. Jolley Sustainable Transport for APEC Megacities: Issues and Solutions , 2000 .

[4]  Xiaohu Wang The Political Economy of Uneven Development: The Case of China , 1998 .

[5]  P. Gottschalk,et al.  Cross-National Differences in the Rise in Earnings Inequality: Market and Institutional Factors , 1998, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[6]  Mihail C. Roco,et al.  Nanostructure Science and Technology. A Worldwide Study , 1999 .

[7]  R. Lucas On the Mechanics of Economic Development , 1988 .

[8]  Luc Soete,et al.  Technology, productivity, and job creation , 1996 .

[9]  T. Swan,et al.  ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION , 1956 .

[10]  Michael P. Todaro,et al.  World Development Report 1990. , 1990 .

[11]  Araújo,et al.  An Evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[12]  P. Sheehan The Global Knowledge Economy: Challenges for China's Development , 1999 .

[13]  R. Solow A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth , 1956 .

[14]  Thorstein Veblen,et al.  Why Economics is not an Evolutionary Science , 1898 .

[15]  Stephen E. Thomsen,et al.  Scale and scope: the dynamics of industrial capitalism , 1992 .

[16]  G. Grossman,et al.  Innovation and growth in the global economy , 1993 .

[17]  Paul Bairoch Economics and World History , 1993 .

[18]  Ellen R. McGrattan,et al.  The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration , 1996 .

[19]  M. Enright,et al.  The Hong Kong Advantage , 1997 .

[20]  Tjalling C. Koopmans,et al.  On the concept of optimal economic growth , 1963 .

[21]  J. B. Quinn,et al.  Intelligent Enterprise: A Knowledge and Service Based Paradigm for Industry , 1992 .

[22]  P. Romer Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth , 1986, Journal of Political Economy.

[23]  Working for the future: Technology and employment in the global knowledge economy , 1998 .

[24]  Richard K. Lester,et al.  Made by Hong Kong , 1997 .

[25]  E. Domar,et al.  CAPITAL EXPANSION, RATE OF GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT , 1946 .

[26]  Ly Zhang,et al.  The political economy of uneven development: The case of China , 2001 .

[27]  R. Sugden,et al.  The Quality of Life. , 1994 .

[28]  R. Solow TECHNICAL CHANGE AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION , 1957 .

[29]  P. Romer Endogenous Technological Change , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[30]  Raimar Richers The theory of economic development , 1961 .

[31]  S. Winter,et al.  An evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .