A comparative assessment of different deviation strategies for dangerous NEO

In this paper a number of deviation strategies for dangerous Near Earth Objects (NEO) have been compared. For each strategy (i.e. Solar Collector, Nuclear Blast, Kinetic Impactor, Low-thrust Propulsion, Mass Driver) a multi criteria optimisation method has been used to reconstruct the set of Pareto optimal solutions minimising the mass of the spacecraft and the warning time, and maximising the deviation. Then, a dominance criterion has been defined and used to compare all the Pareto sets. The achievable deviation at the MOID, either for a low-thrust or for an impulsive variation of the orbit of the NEO, has been computed through a set of analytical formulas. The variation of the orbit of the NEO has been estimated through a deviation action model that takes into account the wet mass of the spacecraft at the Earth. Finally the technology readiness level of each strategy has been used to compute a more realistic value for the required warning time.

[1]  I. Michael Ross,et al.  Gravitational Effects of Earth in Optimizing ?V for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids , 2001 .

[2]  R. P. Young,et al.  Experimental hypervelocity impact effects on simulated planetesimal materials , 1994 .

[3]  R. Battin.  An introduction to the mathematics and methods of astrodynamics , 1987 .

[4]  Bruce A. Conway.  OPTIMAL LOW-THRUST INTERCEPTION OF EARTH-CROSSING ASTEROIDS , 1996 .

[5]  Colin R. McInnes,et al.  Deflection of near-Earth asteroids by kinetic energy impacts from retrograde orbits , 2004 .

[6]  John L. Remo.  Energy requirements and payload masses for near-Earth objects hazard mitigation , 2000 .

[7]  Daniel J. Scheeres,et al.  The Mechanics of Moving Asteroids , 2004 .

[8]  P. L. Smith,et al.  DEFLECTING A NEAR EARTH OBJECT WITH TODAY'S SPACE TECHNOLOGY , 2004 .

[9]  T. Ahrens,et al.  Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids , 1992, Nature.

[10]  Claudio Bonanno,et al.  An analytical approximation for the MOID and its consequences , 2000 .

[11]  M. Thomas,et al.  Inflatable space structures , 1992, IEEE Potentials.

[12]  Stanley G. Love,et al.  Gravitational tractor for towing asteroids , 2005, Nature.

[13]  V. V. Ivashkin,et al.  An analysis of some methods of asteroid hazard mitigation for the Earth , 1995 .

[14]  Bruce A. Conway,et al.  Near-Optimal Deflection of Earth-Approaching Asteroids , 2001 .

[15]  J. Junkins,et al.  Analytical Mechanics of Space Systems , 2003 .

[16]  Dario Izzo,et al.  Optimal trajectories for the impulsive deflection of near earth objects , 2006 .

[17]  S. Chesley,et al.  Resonant returns to close approaches: Analytical theory ? , 2003 .

[18]  Akihiko Hashimoto,et al.  Evaporation of single crystal forsterite: evaporation kinetics, magnesium isotope fractionation, and implications of mass-dependent isotopic fractionation of a diffusion-controlled reservoir , 1999 .

[19]  J. Spitale.  Asteroid Hazard Mitigation Using the Yarkovsky Effect , 2002, Science.

[20]  G. Hahn,et al.  Physical limits of solar collectors in deflecting Earth-threatening asteroids , 2006 .

[21]  Ekkehard Kührt,et al.  Optimal deflection of NEOs en route of collision with the Earth , 2006 .

[22]  J. S. Mackay.  Space mission analysis. , 1968 .

[23]  I. Michael Ross,et al.  Two-Body Optimization for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids , 1999 .

[24]  Andrea Carusi,et al.  Planetary close encounters: geometry of approach and post-encounter orbital parameters , 1990 .

[25]  Andrea Boattini,et al.  Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth , 2002 .