Biofuels, climate policy and the European vehicle fleet

We examine the effect of biofuels mandates and climate policy on the European vehicle fleet, in particular the prospects for diesel and gasoline vehicles. Our analysis is based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy which explicitly incorporates current generation biofuels, accounts for stock turnover of the vehicle fleets, disaggregates gasoline and diesel cars, and represents an advanced E85 vehicle. We find that the European vehicle fleet is robust to proposed biofuels mandates owing to an existing fuel tax and tariffs structure that favours diesel vehicles. Harmonising excise duties on diesel and gasoline or lowering tariffs on biofuel imports, however, is shown to reverse the trend toward more diesel vehicles and significantly alters the efficiency costs and environmental effectiveness of renewable fuel policies. © 2012 LSE and the University of Bath

[1]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Canada’s Bitumen Industry Under CO2 Constraints , 2010 .

[2]  A. Schäfer,et al.  The future mobility of the world population , 2000 .

[3]  A. McAloon,et al.  A process model to estimate biodiesel production costs. , 2006, Bioresource technology.

[4]  Robert G. McGillivray,et al.  交通機関別分担に関する需要とその選択モデル(Journal of Transport Economics and Policy,May1970) , 1971 .

[5]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry , 2007 .

[6]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4 , 2005 .

[7]  Thomas F. Rutherford,et al.  Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax , 1999 .

[8]  Dileep K. Birur,et al.  Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications , 2010 .

[9]  S. Robinson.  Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models , 1991 .

[10]  S. Dirkse,et al.  The path solver: a nommonotone stabilization scheme for mixed complementarity problems , 1995 .

[11]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Disaggregating Household Transport in the MIT-EPPA Model , 2004 .

[12]  Maitrayee Mukerji,et al.  German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) , 2018, The Grants Register 2022.

[13]  Henry D. Jacoby,et al.  Annex I differentiation proposals : implications for welfare, equity and policy , 1997 .

[14]  J. Melillo,et al.  Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important? , 2009, Science.

[15]  Effects of the Alternative Motor Fuels Act CAFE Incentives Policy , 2002 .

[16]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Biomass Energy and Competition for Land , 2008, GTAP Working Paper.

[17]  H. J. Herzog,et al.  Representing Energy Technologies in Top-down Economic Models Using Bottom-up Information , 2002 .

[18]  John D. Graham,et al.  The Benefits and Costs of New Fuels and Engines for Cars and Light Trucks , 2007 .

[19]  Andreas Schäfer,et al.  The global demand for motorized mobility , 1998 .

[20]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  The cost of climate policy in the United States , 2009 .

[21]  H. Shapouri,et al.  Usda's 2002 Ethanol Cost-Of-Production Survey , 2005 .

[22]  Valerie J. Karplus,et al.  Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium , 2010 .

[23]  T. Randall Fortenbery,et al.  Biodiesel Feasibility Study: An Evaluation of Biodiesel Feasibility in Wisconsin , 2005 .

[24]  Valerie J. Karplus,et al.  Modelling Prospects for Hydrogen-powered Transportation Until 2100 , 2009 .

[25]  Michael J. Haas,et al.  Evaluation of partially hydrogenated methyl esters of soybean oil as biodiesel , 2007 .

[26]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis , 2009 .

[27]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations , 2007 .

[28]  T. Rutherford.  Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis , 1995 .