Modelling spatial heterogeneity of phytoplankton in Lake Mangueira, a large shallow subtropical lake in South Brazil

Abstract We present a model describing phytoplankton growth in Lake Mangueira, a large subtropical lake in the Taim Hydrological System in South Brazil (817 km 2 , average depth 2 m). The horizontal 2D model consists of three modules: (a) a detailed hydrodynamic module for shallow water, which deals with wind-driven quantitative flows and water level, (b) a nutrient module, which deals with nutrient transport mechanisms and some conversion processes and (c) a biological module, which describes phytoplankton growth in a simple way. We solved the partial differential equations numerically by applying an efficient semi-implicit finite differences method to a regular grid. Hydrodynamic parameters were calibrated to continuous measurements of the water level at two different locations of the lake. An independent validation data set showed a good fit of the hydrodynamic module ( R 2  ≥ 0.92). The nutrient and biological modules were parameterized using literature data and verified by comparing simulated phytoplankton patterns with remote sensing data from satellite images and field data of chlorophyll a . Moreover, a sensitivity analyses showed which parameters had the largest influence on the simulated phytoplankton biomass. The model could identify zones with a higher potential for eutrophication. It has shown to be a first step towards a management tool for prediction of the trophic state in subtropical lakes, estuaries and reservoirs.

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