Long-term targets for green building: Explorative Delphi backcasting study on wood-frame multi-story construction in Finland

Abstract Industries have set ambitious targets for 2030 related to green building: Tripling the market share of wood construction, doubling the value added of the woodworking industries and reducing the environmental impact of construction by 30%. The objective of the study is to identify measures for meeting these targets, taking the case of wood-frame multi-story construction in Finland. The study introduces a combination of consensus and dissensus based Delphi techniques within the framework of target-orientated backcasting. The results point to two alternative pathways: i) gradual increase of competition and the resulting increased credibility among the construction professionals, and ii) moving downstream in the construction value chain and introducing more direct policy support measures. The realization of the targets was considered more likely by following the latter pathway, yet it was considered unattractive by industry stakeholders. Thus, the industries need to either revisit their targets for 2030, or reconsider the strategies for pursuing them. Moreover, instead of traditional norms, the public sector may have to pursue novel measures for promoting business opportunities in green building. The combinatory approach allowed both exploring tensions among the experts' and stakeholders’ opinions and critically evaluating the possibility of achieving the targets.

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