OR Modeling and AIDS Policy: From Theory to Practice

The AIDS epidemic is a serious, growing public health problem worldwide, but resources for treating HIV-infected patients and for combating the spread of the virus are limited. Governments, public-health agencies, and healthcare providers must determine how best to allocate scarce resources for HIV treatment and prevention among different programs and populations. OR-based models have influenced-and can influence-AIDS policy decisions. Mathematical modeling has had an effect on AIDS policy in a number of areas, including estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in the United States, understanding the pathophysiology of HIV, evaluating costs and benefits of HIV-screening programs, evaluating the effects of needle-exchange programs, and determining policies for HIV/AIDS care in California. Further work is needed to model a range of programs using comparable methods, to model overall epidemic control strategy, and to improve the usefulness of OR-based models for policy making.

[1]  Edward H. Kaplan,et al.  Probability Models of Needle Exchange , 1995, Oper. Res..

[2]  Jon Cohen,et al.  AIDS vaccines. Are researchers racing toward success, or crawling? , 1994, Science.

[3]  R. Johnson,et al.  Evidence for the effects of HIV antibody counseling and testing on risk behaviors. , 1991, JAMA.

[4]  Mitchell H. Gail,et al.  AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach , 1994 .

[5]  E H Kaplan,et al.  A circulation theory of needle exchange. , 1994, AIDS.

[6]  H. Fineberg,et al.  Compulsory premarital screening for the human immunodeficiency virus. Technical and public health considerations. , 1987, JAMA.

[7]  M. Brandeau,et al.  Effect of Relapse to High-Risk Behavior on the Costs and Benefits of a Program to Screen Women for Human Immunodeficiency Virus , 1998 .

[8]  K. Freedberg,et al.  The Cost-Effectiveness of Fluconazole Prophylaxis against Primary Systemic Fungal Infections in AIDS Patients , 1997, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[9]  D. Owens,et al.  Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in acute care settings. , 1996, Archives of internal medicine.

[10]  Lawrence M. Wein,et al.  Pooled Testing for HIV Screening: Capturing the Dilution Effect , 2018, Oper. Res..

[11]  F. Sonnenberg,et al.  Who should be screened for HIV infection? A cost-effectiveness analysis. , 1993, Archives of internal medicine.

[12]  B. Kinosian,et al.  Strategies for screening blood for human immunodeficiency virus antibody. Use of a decision support system. , 1990, JAMA.

[13]  D K Owens,et al.  Screening women of childbearing age for human immunodeficiency virus. A cost-benefit analysis. , 1992, Archives of internal medicine.

[14]  A D Paltiel,et al.  Modeling zidovudine therapy: a cost-effectiveness analysis. , 1991, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[15]  Jonathan Rosenhead,et al.  AIDSPLAN: A Decision Support Model for Planning the Provision of HIV/AIDS-Related Services , 1991 .

[16]  D. Owens,et al.  Occupational exposure to human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus: a comparative analysis of risk. , 1992, The American journal of medicine.

[17]  R. D’Aquila,et al.  Methadone maintenance treatment and HIV type 1 seroconversion among injecting drug users. , 1992, AIDS care.

[18]  P. Lurie,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of HIV testing of physicians and dentists in the United States. , 1994, JAMA.

[19]  Travis C. Porco,et al.  Designing HIV Vaccination Policies: Subtypes and Cross-Immunity , 1998, Interfaces.

[20]  J. Kahn,et al.  The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in assessing HIV-prevention interventions. , 1997, AIDS and Public Policy Journal.

[21]  M Gwinn,et al.  Prevalence of HIV infection in the United States, 1984 to 1992. , 1996, JAMA.

[22]  Tomos Philipson,et al.  Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy, and Prediction , 1994 .

[23]  M A Nowak,et al.  Antigenic diversity thresholds and the development of AIDS. , 1991, Science.

[24]  E. H. Kaplan,et al.  Self-Deferral, HIV Infection, and the Blood Supply , 1990 .

[25]  E H Kaplan,et al.  A method for evaluating needle exchange programmes. , 1994, Statistics in medicine.

[26]  E. H. Kaplan.  Economic analysis of needle exchange. , 1995, AIDS.

[27]  P. Lurie,et al.  An opportunity lost: HIV infections associated with lack of a national needle-exchange programme in the USA , 1997, The Lancet.

[28]  H V Fineberg,et al.  Bleach programs for preventing AIDS among i.v. drug users: modeling the impact of HIV prevalence. , 1991, American journal of public health.

[29]  P. Lurie,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of voluntary counseling and testing of hospital inpatients for HIV infection. , 1994, JAMA.

[30]  J. Kahn,et al.  HIV-1 protease inhibitors. A review for clinicians. , 1997 .

[31]  Scope of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States , 1995, Science.

[32]  E. H. Kaplan,et al.  So What If the Program Ain't Perfect? , 1989 .

[33]  M. Nowak,et al.  Dynamic multidrug therapies for HIV: a control theoretic approach. , 2015, Journal of theoretical biology.

[34]  A K Highsmith,et al.  Surveillance for waterborne disease outbreaks--United States, 1991-1992. , 1993, MMWR. CDC surveillance summaries : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. CDC surveillance summaries.

[35]  Ross D. Shachter,et al.  A Dynamic HIV-Transmission Model for Evaluating the Costs and Benefits of Vaccine Programs , 1998, Interfaces.

[36]  Kenneth A. Freedberg,et al.  The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing Cytomegalovirus Disease in AIDS Patients , 1998, Interfaces.

[37]  V. De Angelis,et al.  Planning Home Assistance for AIDS Patients in the City of Rome, Italy , 1998, Interfaces.

[38]  S. Hammer,et al.  Antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection in 1998: updated recommendations of the International AIDS Society-USA Panel. , 1997, JAMA.

[39]  J. Potterat,et al.  Partner notification in the control of human immunodeficiency virus infection. , 1989, American journal of public health.

[40]  J. Kahn,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention targeting: how much more bang for the buck? , 1996, American journal of public health.

[41]  David R. Holtgrave,et al.  Methodological issues in evaluating HIV prevention community planning. , 1996, Public health reports.

[42]  Jonathan P. Caulkins,et al.  Can Difficult-to-Reuse Syringes Reduce the Spread of HIV Among Injection Drug Users? , 1998, Interfaces.

[43]  Linda Wright-De Agüero,et al.  Cost of Outreach for HIV Prevention Among Drug Users and Youth at Risk , 1996 .

[44]  Patricia Scott,et al.  Screening Surgeons for HIV Infection: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis , 1995, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[45]  Edward H. Kaplan,et al.  Let the Needles Do the Talking! Evaluating the New Haven Needle Exchange , 1993 .

[46]  Douglas K Owens,et al.  A Policy Model of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Screening and Intervention , 1991 .

[47]  W. Mcneill.  Plagues and Peoples , 1977, The Review of Politics.

[48]  R. Anderson,et al.  The concept of herd immunity and the design of community-based immunization programmes. , 1992, Vaccine.

[49]  S. Blower,et al.  Prophylactic vaccines, risk behavior change, and the probability of eradicating HIV in San Francisco. , 1994, Science.

[50]  Douglas K Owens,et al.  Screening Women of Childbearing Age for Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Model-Based Policy Analysis , 1993 .

[51]  M A Nowak,et al.  How HIV defeats the immune system. , 1995, Scientific American.

[52]  R. May,et al.  Understanding the AIDS pandemic. , 1992, Scientific American.