THE PRICE OF NOT WALKING

GOVERNMENTS ARE CONSTANTLY FACED WITH DECISIONS AS TO HOW THEY WILL ATTEMPT TO REDUCE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. ANY DECISION TO SELECT A METHOD TO REDUCE ACCIDENTS IS PREDICATED ON A SUBDECISION THAT THE METHOD WILL HAVE A DETECTABLE EFFECT ON A CAUSE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. SUCH DECISIONS ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT BECAUSE TRAFFIC ACCIDENT CAUSES ARE A COMPLEX MIXTURE OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CAUSATIVE FACTORS. A CLEARER UNDERSTANDING OF THE TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PROCESS IS NEEDED IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THESE GOVERNMENT DECISIONS WHICH EFFECT THE FREEDOM, SOCIAL ATTITUDES, THE POCKET BOOKS AND THE LIVES OF EVERYONE. A FRAMEWORK FOR A SCIENCE OF TRAFFIC SAFETY BASED ON KNOWLEDGE AND LOGIC IS SUGGESTED TO REPLACE THE INTUITION AND GUESSWORK OFTEN USED IN THIS UNCERTAIN DECISION SITUATION. A THEORETICAL MODEL OF THE ACCIDENT PROCESS WAS CONSTRUCTED IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE UNDERLYING CAUSE OF MOST PREVENTABLE ACCIDENTS. NEXT, A MODEL OF THE KNOWN FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS UNDERLYING CAUSE WAS DEVELOPED. THEN A PROCEDURE WAS CREATED WHEREBY THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF ANY CONTRIBUTING FACTOR OR COMBINATION OF CONTRIBUTING FACTORS IN CAUSING SPECIFIC KINDS OF ACCIDENTS COULD BE DETERMINED. FINALLY, A METHOD FOR SELECTING AND PREDICTING THE EFFECT OF A COUNTER MEASURE WAS DEVELOPED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS WERE 1. IMPERFECT PERCEPTION IS THE ROOT CAUSE OF MOST PREVENTABLE ACCIDENTS, NOT IMPROPER BEHAVIOR, AS OFTEN BELIEVED. 2. DRIVER MARGIN FOR ERROR OR RISK ASSUMPTION LEVEL MAY PREVENT ACCIDENTS BUT IS NOT THE TRUE CAUSE OF ACCIDENTS. 3. TRADITIONAL ACCIDENT ANALYSES BASED ON FATALITIES PER 100 MILLION MILES OF TRAVEL MAY LEAD TO ERRONEOUS CONCLUSIONS AND SHOULD BE REPLACED OR AUGMENTED BY ANALYSES BASED ON FATALITIES PER MOBILITY WITH MOBILITY DEFINED AS MILES X SPEED X OCCUPANTS PER VEHICLE. 5. SIGNIFICANT ACCIDENT REDUCTION CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED BY CONTINUOUS OPERATIONAL SURVEILLANCE OF VEHICLE SPEED. TREATING SPEED AS A CRIME HINDERS ACCIDENT PREVENTION AND MUST BE CHANGED BEFORE SUCH CONTINUOUS SURVEILLANCE CAN BE MOST BENEFICIALLY APPLIED. /AUTHOR/