Pump, boiler, cell or turbine? Six mixed scenarios of energy futures in farms

Abstract As modern societies are moving to the bio-economy era the energy solutions of enterprises are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we study the energy futures of farms up to 2030. A two-rounded mixed Delphi study combining qualitative and quantitative data was carried out to gather the views of experts within agriculture, as well as climate and energy issues. In the first round the experts answered a questionnaire and were interviewed and on the second round a feed-back report from the first round and an online questionnaire was used. The experts were asked to estimate probable and evaluate preferred futures of eleven energy sources in farm-level energy usage. Images of the future were constructed by performing a cluster analysis of the quantitative data. The quantitative clusters were complemented with qualitative material providing, arguments, meanings and rationale of and paths to the images of the future. Six scenarios were formed this way: 1) Boiler and Pump, 2) Incremental Change, 3) Energy Boost Plus, 4) Energy Boost Minus, 5) Renewable Prosperity and 6) Energy Save. The six scenarios differ in how much they envision traditional energy forms (bulk electricity, oil, natural gas) will be used and what is the emphasis of combustion of biofuels (wood, liquid biofuels, biogas, other biomass) and the use of other renewables (wind, solar energy, heat pumps and hydropower). All scenarios need consistent policies in order to become realised in the future – it is time to decide.