Likelihood-Free Inference in Cosmology: Potential for the Estimation of Luminosity Functions

Statistical inference of cosmological quantities of interest is complicated by significant observational limitations, including heteroscedastic measurement error and irregular selection effects. These observational difficulties exacerbate challenges posed by the often-complex relationship between estimands and the distribution of observables; indeed, in some situations it is only possible to simulate realizations of observations under various assumed cosmological theories. When faced with these challenges, one is naturally led to consider utilizing repeated simulations of the full data generation process, and then comparing observed and simulated data sets to constrain the parameters. In such a scenario, one would not have a likelihood function relating the parameters to the observable data. This paper will present an overview of methods that allow a likelihood-free approach to inference, with emphasis on approximate Bayesian computation, a class of procedures originally motivated by similar inference problems in population genetics.

[1]  D. Lynden-Bell,et al.  A Method of Allowing for Known Observational Selection in Small Samples Applied to 3CR Quasars , 1971 .

[2]  P. Diggle,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods of Inference for Implicit Statistical Models , 1984 .

[3]  M. Woodroofe Estimating a Distribution Function with Truncated Data , 1985 .

[4]  Gutti Jogesh Babu,et al.  Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy , 1992 .

[5]  Jeffrey D. Scargle,et al.  Statistical challenges in modern astronomy II , 1997 .

[6]  Bradley Efron,et al.  Nonparametric Methods for Doubly Truncated Data , 1998 .

[7]  P. Moral,et al.  Sequential Monte Carlo samplers , 2002, cond-mat/0212648.

[8]  K. Heggland,et al.  Estimating functions in indirect inference , 2004 .

[9]  G. J. Babu,et al.  Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy , 2004 .

[10]  Stefano Casertano,et al.  New Hubble Space Telescope Discoveries of Type Ia Supernovae at z ≥ 1: Narrowing Constraints on the Early Behavior of Dark Energy , 2006, astro-ph/0611572.

[11]  C. Schafer A Statistical Method for Estimating Luminosity Functions Using Truncated Data , 2007, astro-ph/0702401.

[12]  Paul Marjoram,et al.  Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology Approximately Sufficient Statistics and Bayesian Computation , 2011 .

[13]  C. Robert,et al.  Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation , 2008, 0805.2256.

[14]  Philip B. Stark,et al.  Constructing Confidence Regions of Optimal Expected Size , 2009 .

[15]  Albert D. Shieh,et al.  Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology , 2010 .

[16]  Edward J. Wollack,et al.  SEVEN-YEAR WILKINSON MICROWAVE ANISOTROPY PROBE (WMAP) OBSERVATIONS: POWER SPECTRA AND WMAP-DERIVED PARAMETERS , 2010, 1001.4635.

[17]  N. Ross,et al.  NEAR-INFRARED PHOTOMETRIC PROPERTIES OF 130,000 QUASARS: AN SDSS–UKIDSS-MATCHED CATALOG , 2010, 1012.4187.

[18]  A. Pettitt,et al.  Approximate Bayesian computation using indirect inference , 2011 .