The use of UKCP09 to produce weather files for building simulation

Traditionally, hourly weather years such as the test reference years (TRYs) and design summer years (DSYs) have been used for building energy and thermal performance analysis. Until recently, these weather datasets were based on observed measurements, but the need to adapt buildings to the impacts of likely future climate change has introduced a requirement to incorporate climate projections, such as the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), into building performance analysis. Four research projects, funded by the EPSRC, examined the use of UKCP09 data, and the associated Weather Generator tool, in producing weather files appropriate for building simulation. A methodology called ‘morphing’, previously used to create the currently available to practitioners, UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) based, CIBSE Future Weather Years, will also be discussed here as a potential alternative for the production of UKCP09-based weather files. This article reviews all above methodologies developed to produce weather files for building simulation, using the UKCP09 projections, and discusses their benefits and limitations as well as their ease of use by designers. Practical application: This article aims to provide a comprehensive review of the various methodologies currently available for the production of future weather files for building thermal and energy performance simulation using the UKCP09 projections. This analysis aims to provide users with the benefits and limitations associated with each methodology and end product based on their accessibility, consistency with other currently used datasets, computational resources required and spatial availability.

[1]  Gavin J. Gibson,et al.  Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: Predicting overheating in dwelli , 2011 .

[2]  David Coley,et al.  On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09 , 2011 .

[3]  G. J. Levermore,et al.  Constructing a future weather file for use in building simulation using UKCP09 projections , 2011 .

[4]  Chris Underwood,et al.  Generating test reference years from the UKCP09 projections and their application in building energy simulations , 2012 .

[5]  David Jenkins,et al.  Statistical techniques to emulate dynamic building simulations for overheating analyses in future probabilistic climates , 2011 .

[6]  D. Coley,et al.  The creation of wind speed and direction data for the use in probabilistic future weather files , 2011 .

[7]  Glenis,et al.  UK Climate Projections science report: Projections of future daily climate for the UK from the Weather Generator , 2009 .

[8]  Geoff Levermore,et al.  Analyses and algorithms for new Test Reference Years and Design Summer Years for the UK , 2006 .

[9]  Matthew D. Collins,et al.  UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections , 2009 .

[10]  Geoff Levermore,et al.  An examination of UKCIP02 and UKCP09 solar radiation data sets for the UK climate related to their use in building design , 2011 .

[11]  T. Muneer.  Solar radiation and daylight models , 2004 .

[12]  David Coley,et al.  Assessing the risk of climate change for buildings: A comparison between multi-year and probabilisti , 2011 .

[13]  Gillian Frances Menzies,et al.  Incorporating Climate Change Projections into Building design: A Qualitative Study , 2011 .

[14]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[15]  R. E. Schafer,et al.  Improved goodness-of-fit tests , 1971 .

[16]  Jn Hacker,et al.  Constructing design weather data for future climates , 2005 .