IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentration to Low Levels

This report discusses the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentrations levels based on an analysis using two integrated assessment models (MESSAGE and IMAGE). Model runs were preformed which explored the feasibility of reaching radiative forcing levels in 2100 between 2.6 to 2.9 W/m2 above pre-industrial levels. Such low targets are necessary to limit global mean temperature increase to below 2oC compared to pre-industrial levels with high probability. The analysis examines the attainability of low targets systematically with respect to key uncertainties, including alternative baseline development pathways, availability of different technologies, emissions of bio-energy, and impacts of forestry and land use assumptions. A number of sensitivity tests were carried out to test the robustness of achieving low GHG concentration targets. The results from the two models are discussed in detail comprising energy profiles and emission pathways consistent with such low stabilization targets.

[1]  Kristian Lindgren,et al.  Carbon Capture and Storage From Fossil Fuels and Biomass – Costs and Potential Role in Stabilizing the Atmosphere , 2006 .

[2]  Brian C. O'Neill,et al.  Probabilistic temperature change projections and energy system implications of greenhouse gas emission scenarios , 2007 .

[3]  T. Wigley,et al.  Could reducing fossil-fuel emissions cause global warming? , 1991, Nature.

[4]  T. Wigley,et al.  Dangerous assumptions , 2008, Nature.

[5]  D. P. Vuuren,et al.  THE CONSISTENCY OF IPCC ’ S SRES SCENARIOS TO RECENT LITERATURE AND RECENT PROJECTIONS , 2006 .

[6]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  Moving Beyond Concentrations: The Challenge of Limiting Temperature Change , 2004 .

[7]  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele de Strihou,et al.  Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies , 2008 .

[8]  D. V. van Vuuren,et al.  Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[9]  Brian C. O'Neill,et al.  The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections , 2006 .

[10]  Keith A. Smith,et al.  N 2 O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels , 2007 .

[11]  Günther Fischer,et al.  Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirements: Effects of Mitigation , 2007 .

[12]  Ximing Cai,et al.  World Water And Food To 2025: Dealing With Scarcity , 2002 .

[13]  Jochen Harnisch,et al.  Estimating Future Emissions and Potential Reductions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 , 2006 .

[14]  T. Wigley,et al.  Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming , 2001, Science.

[15]  K. Riahi,et al.  The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate change mitigation: Long-term scenarios for the 21st century , 2006 .

[16]  J. Canadell,et al.  Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[17]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  MESSAGE-MACRO: Linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively , 2000 .

[18]  Ian McCallum,et al.  Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply , 2007 .

[19]  Vincent Mahieu,et al.  Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the european context , 2004 .

[20]  M. Strubegger,et al.  User's Guide for MESSAGE III , 1995 .

[21]  Bas Eickhout,et al.  Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs , 2007 .

[22]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization , 2007 .

[23]  M. Webb,et al.  Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations , 2004, Nature.

[24]  F. Joos,et al.  Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks , 2003 .

[25]  Günther Fischer,et al.  Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990-2080 , 2007 .

[26]  Bas Eickhout,et al.  Climate benefits of changing diet , 2009 .

[27]  Michel G.J. den Elzen,et al.  Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases , 2007 .

[28]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Contribution of N2O to the greenhouse gas balance of first‐generation biofuels , 2009 .

[29]  Mnv,et al.  The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios; A comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century , 2001 .

[30]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context , 2007 .