Development of a Intercity Mode Choice Models for New Aviation Technologies

A family of nested logit random utility models was developed to study intercity mode choice behavior in the United States. The models were calibrated using a nationwide revealed preference survey (1995 American Travel Survey) and two stated preference surveys conducted by Virginia Tech at selected airports in the U.S. The focus of this paper is on the ability of the models to estimate market share for the new category of Very Light Jet aircraft used in on-demand air taxi services. Analysis was performed to compare the stated preference surveys and the American Travel Survey within the same random utility framework. The main explanatory variables in the utility functions are travel time and travel cost stratified by household income. The model has been integrated into a large-scale computer software travel demand framework called the Transportation Systems Analysis Model to estimate nationwide intercity travel demand flow between 3,091 counties in the U.S., 443 commercial service airports and more than 3,000 general aviation airports in the U.S. A pared down version of the model will be integrated into the National Strategy Simulator that the FAA uses for strategic level planning the aviation system.