On fault prediction model for A320 aircraft air conditioning system

Fault prediction is of great importance to maintain the aircraft air conditioning system. Traditional GM(1,1) prediction model could be used only in the sequences with more obvious exponential characters. Considering the parameters of aircraft air conditioning system are fluctuant, this paper improves the traditional GM (1,1) prediction model and builds a prediction model under small sample circumstance. The improvement prediction model introduces an operator of 3-point to dispose of the original fluctuant sequences and corrects the background sequences using a new method. The predicted sequence of the water extractor A320 air conditioning system shows that the improvement prediction mode satisfies the accuracy requirement and it is validated.