Fuzzy Travel Time Reliability with Uncertainty

Fuzzy travel time reliability on road network is presented in the paper, which shows travelers’ expected travel time and tolerance to delay by membership function. In virtue of the stochastic users’ equilibrium model, the fuzzy travel time reliability is obtained under day-to-day variations in travel demand. A scenario-based analysis method is proposed to estimate the probability of a path travel time within a given threshold comparing with Monte Carlo method. Illustrative numerical tests are performed in a simple network, where the distinction between conventional and fuzzy travel time reliability is analyzed, the effect of travelers’ perceptive parameter, threshold, on reliability is examined, and the scenario-based analysis method is proposed to obtain fuzzy travel time reliability efficiently.