Strategic telecommunications networks planning in the context of emerging technologies, architectures, and services

A methodology is presented for conducting strategic network planning studies under a new set of planning assumptions. The key element of the described methodology is a mathematical model of the equipment-replacement decision-making process that explicitly captures the economic impact of emerging technologies, architectures, and services. The general replacement decision model (GRDM) is a mathematical model that computes the optimal sequence of replacement times for particular pieces of telecommunications network equipment. GRDM takes information about costs and revenues and their trends in time associated with existing and emerging technologies and services and calculates the sequence of technology replacement intervals that minimizes the net present worth of expenditures associated with embedded plant and its replacements. The generality of the model supports its application to a broad range of network evolution issues, including the deployment of fiber optics and intelligent network features. An illustrative application of GRDM is presented which evaluates how the optimal economic lives of analog and digital switching equipment change as the assumed date of widespread broadband switching availability is varied. >